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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Day is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 88%, edge +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 19, 6:02AM UTC
AFL

Will Day

Hawthorn

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+0.6% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks
UTAS Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
22.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.1% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +0.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.1%—88.5%1.12+0.6%

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AI Analysis

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Will Day (Hawthorn) Over 16.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Will Day is our man for the job. Day's recent form is nothing short of impressive, hitting an average of 21.6 disposals in his last 5 home games. With silky smooth efficiency at 69.8%, he's been a linchpin in Hawthorn's midfield, making smart decisions and racking up the numbers. Against North Melbourne, he's even more prolific, averaging 29 disposals in their last 5 encounters. Day's ability to read the play and intercept (2.4 per game) sets him apart, while his metres gained (351.2 on average) showcase his impact going forward. With a current hit streak of 6 at home and 8 overall, Day is a safe bet to snag over 16.5 disposals in this clash. Trust in Day to deliver the goods on his home turf at UTAS Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Will Day averaged 19.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

19.3
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.7
Marks
4.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (18 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Will Day recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
18 Aug 24Richmond2010
11 Aug 24Carlton12020
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS14012
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows20117
20 Jul 24Collingwood26028
13 Jul 24Fremantle24034
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats18007
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles26054
15 Jun 24Richmond20024
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS260610
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Will Day (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Day is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 1 August at UTAS Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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