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AFL

Will Day

Hawthorn

Value call

Will Day (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 2.5 marks that pays $151 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
3.7 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.1% · before adjusting for past results 72.4% · the book's price implies 66.2% · gap -5.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Will Day
over 2.5 marks
Marks Over 2.5 -196 (1.51) · $100→$151
Value call
HIGHWins about 61 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.10 Odds-196
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Day is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 66%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:00PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks72.4%61.1%66.2%1.64+6.1%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Will Day Over 2.5 Marks (-196)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Will Day has been showing solid form lately, making an impact on the field with his ability to win contests and rack up marks. The stats suggest he has a good chance to grab over 2.5 marks against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. His recent performances indicate that he's been involved a lot, which is promising for this bet. One thing to consider is that the Lions are a tough opponent, and the game could be tightly contested. Still, with Day's strong numbers in recent games, this bet looks like a smart move. Just remember, while the odds are in his favor, it's not guaranteed.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Will Day averaged 19.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

19.3
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.7
Marks
4.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (18 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Will Day recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
18 Aug 24Richmond2010
11 Aug 24Carlton12020
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS14012
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows20117
20 Jul 24Collingwood26028
13 Jul 24Fremantle24034
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats18007
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles26054
15 Jun 24Richmond20024
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS260610
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 2.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Will Day (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Day is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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