Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Day is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 66%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:16PM UTC
AFL

Will Day

Hawthorn

Value call

Will Day (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Marks Over 2.5 that pays $151 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -196 (1.51) · $100→$151
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
3.7 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.7% · before adjusting for past results 71.9% · the book's price implies 66.2% · gap -5.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks71.9%60.7%66.2%1.65+5.7%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Will Day Over 2.5 Marks (-196)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Will Day has been showing great form lately, and he's been racking up marks for the Hawthorn Hawks. With Hawthorn winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging nearly 48 points before half-time, they are looking strong. This makes for a good chance that Day will grab over 2.5 marks against the Brisbane Lions. The Lions have also been on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games and coming out ahead by 31 points on average in their last 12. The matchup is tight because both teams are playing well, and the Lions are no pushovers. Still, with Day's recent performance and the way Hawthorn plays, this bet looks promising.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Will Day averaged 19.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

19.3
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.7
Marks
4.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (18 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Will Day recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
18 Aug 24Richmond2010
11 Aug 24Carlton12020
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS14012
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows20117
20 Jul 24Collingwood26028
13 Jul 24Fremantle24034
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats18007
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles26054
15 Jun 24Richmond20024
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS260610
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 2.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Will Day (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Day is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.