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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Day is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 30, 4:18AM UTC
AFL

Will Day

Hawthorn

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -769 (1.13)
+0.6% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks
UTAS Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.1%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
22.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.1%88.5%1.12+0.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Will Day (Hawthorn) Over 16.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to surpass the 16.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash between Hawthorn and North Melbourne, all signs point to Will Day being the man for the job. Day has been a reliable force on his home turf, averaging a stellar 21.6 disposals in his last five outings at UTAS Stadium. His recent form is nothing short of impressive, with a knack for finding the footy and making an impact. With a consistent track record of hitting or exceeding this line, including a solid 29 disposal average against the same opponent in his last five home games, Day's ability to rack up possessions and influence the game is undeniable. Backing Day to continue his hot streak and contribute significantly in this matchup is a bet with high potential for success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs North MelbourneO 16.5 -769+0.6% edge
90%hit L10 O 16.5
22.6avg disposals L5
Home21.6vs North Melbourne22.3Season best30
O 15.590%
O 16.590%
O 17.590%
O 18.580%
O 19.570%
O 20.560%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)7 / 10 hit
2620261824262014122

Will Day has gone over 16.5 disposals in 9 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.6 disposals, best 30). Current line: Over 16.5 at -769, model edge +0.6%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Will Day (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Day is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 1 August at UTAS Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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