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The latest Bet Better model pick for Wade Derksen is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 84%, implied 77%, edge +6.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 21, 12:33PM UTC
AFL

Wade Derksen

Carlton

+6.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
+6.8% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 22 Aug, 3:15AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
14.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 83.8% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +6.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.8%76.9%1.19+6.8%

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AI Analysis

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Wade Derksen (Carlton) Over 10.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Wade Derksen hitting the Over 10.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash between the Carlton Blues and Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium, the numbers are speaking volumes. In his last five home games, Derksen has been a midfield dynamo, averaging 15 disposals with a precise 69.5% disposal efficiency rate. His ability to rack up 11 kicks and 4 handballs per game indicates his influence in both creating plays and moving the ball forward effectively. With an average of 7 intercepts and 219 meters gained per game in his recent home performances, Derksen has been a linchpin in Carlton's possession game. Considering his overall hit rate of 9 out of the last 11 games, the signs point towards Derksen not only meeting but exceeding the 10.5 disposal line. Expect him to thrive in front of the home crowd and make a significant impact in this crucial midfield battle.

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Wade Derksen has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.580%
o11.560%
o13.550%
o14.550%
o16.530%
o17.530%
o18.50%
o20.50%
o21.50%
o23.50%
o24.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Wade Derksen is averaging 14.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

14.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Wade Derksen (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Wade Derksen is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.8% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 22 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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