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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Brown is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 61%, edge +12.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 5:59AM UTC
AFL

Tom Brown

Richmond

+12.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+12.6% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
16.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.2% · the book's price implies 60.6% · gap +12.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.2%60.6%1.37+12.6%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 13.5 Disposals (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in the AFL, Tom Brown of the Richmond Tigers stands out as a solid pick. With an average of 12.4 disposals in his last five home games and a recent hit streak, Brown's form is on the rise. His ability to find space and rack up kicks (9.2 average) and handballs (3.2 average) makes him a pivotal figure in the Tigers' midfield. Against the Brisbane Lions, whom he averages 13.5 disposals against, Brown is likely to thrive, especially given his impressive metres gained (274.6 average). With an efficient disposal rate (78.9%) and a knack for intercepts (4.2 average), Brown's all-around game is primed for a big day. Bet confidently on Brown to surpass the 13.5 disposal line; he's poised to split the middle and deliver for punters at Ninja Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Tom Brown averaged 12.5 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

12.5
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.8
Marks
0.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs North Melbourne), Tom Brown recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24North Melbourne8130
28 Jul 24Collingwood8350
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide8041
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS14040
6 Jul 24Fremantle16030
30 Jun 24Carlton9031
15 Jun 24Hawthorn12052
6 Jun 24Adelaide Crows16041
1 Jun 24Geelong Cats13031
25 May 24Essendon12021
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -154 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 12.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 11.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Brown (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Brown is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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