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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Brown is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +12.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Tom Brown

Richmond

+12.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -154 (1.65)
+12.6% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
73.2%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+12.6%
Predicted Value
16.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.2%60.6%1.37+12.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 13.5 Disposals (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in the AFL, Tom Brown of the Richmond Tigers stands out as a solid pick. With an average of 12.4 disposals in his last five home games and a recent hit streak, Brown's form is on the rise. His ability to find space and rack up kicks (9.2 average) and handballs (3.2 average) makes him a pivotal figure in the Tigers' midfield. Against the Brisbane Lions, whom he averages 13.5 disposals against, Brown is likely to thrive, especially given his impressive metres gained (274.6 average). With an efficient disposal rate (78.9%) and a knack for intercepts (4.2 average), Brown's all-around game is primed for a big day. Bet confidently on Brown to surpass the 13.5 disposal line; he's poised to split the middle and deliver for punters at Ninja Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17.2avg disposals L5
Home15.8vs Hawthorn13Season best18
O 15.550%
O 16.540%
O 17.540%
O 18.530%
O 19.530%
O 20.530%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 11.6 · hi 16 · lo 8
1213161291614888

Tom Brown has gone over 17.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.2 disposals, best 18).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -154 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 12.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 11.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Brown (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Brown is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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