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AFL

Tom Brown

Richmond

+7.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -455 (1.22)
+7.0% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
88.9%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+7.0%
Predicted Value
16.6 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 10.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Tom Brown and his knack for getting his hands on the footy. This Sunday, under the bright lights at Ninja Stadium, the Richmond Tigers take on the Brisbane Lions, and all eyes are on Tom to deliver the goods. Over his last 5 home games, Tom has been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 12.4 possessions per game. When facing off against the Lions, he's bumped that number up to 13.5 disposals on average. With a current hit streak of 7 games at home and an impressive contested possessions average of 3.8, Tom has been a reliable ball magnet. Considering his recent form and the data pointing towards Tom hitting over 10.5 disposals, it's a smart play to back him to continue his midfield dominance this weekend. Tom's set to split the middle and snag those disposals – lock it in.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (5 picks) 100.0% (5/5)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 10.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 11.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 12.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Brown (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 5 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (5/5). The latest model pick for Tom Brown is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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