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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Barrass is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 66%, the price says 76%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:12PM UTC
AFL

Tom Barrass

Hawthorn

Value call

Tom Barrass (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Marks Over 2.5 that pays $132 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -313 (1.32) · $100→$132
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
66 in 100
Predicted
4.4 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 66.2% · before adjusting for past results 78.2% · the book's price implies 75.8% · gap -9.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks78.2%66.2%75.8%1.51+2.4%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Tom Barrass Over 2.5 Marks (-312)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Barrass has been playing well lately, showing a knack for getting marks. He's had a good run, and our numbers suggest he is a strong favorite to get over 2.5 marks in this game against the Brisbane Lions. The way he has been performing makes it feel like a solid bet for him to reach that mark. The biggest risk here is that both teams are close in skill, which could lead to a more competitive game. If the action is spread out, he might not get as many chances to grab marks. Still, with Barrass's recent form, this pick looks promising as he aims to shine at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Barrass averaged 13.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.8 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
6.8
Marks
0.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (27 Jul 24 vs Fremantle), Tom Barrass recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
27 Jul 24Fremantle16093
20 Jul 24St Kilda20080
14 Jul 24Brisbane Lions11031
7 Jul 24Melbourne9070
30 Jun 24Hawthorn14091
23 Jun 24Essendon160111
8 Jun 24North Melbourne9022
1 Jun 24St Kilda14091
26 May 24Adelaide Crows11071
19 May 24Melbourne15081
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 2.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Tom Barrass (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Barrass is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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