Talor Byrne (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-145)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Talor Byrne kicking at least one goal against Geelong is a genuine edge, but the away-game numbers demand some caution before diving in. His L5 away average sits at just 0.2 goals with a 10% goal accuracy and only 1.4 shots at goal per game away from home — well below his overall L5 figures of 0.6 goals and 23.3% accuracy. The saving grace is his L5 record against Geelong specifically, where he's averaging 1 goal, which is the most relevant data point here. The model projects 1.1 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 15% edge over the implied probability of 59.2% at $1.69. His overall L5 score involvements of 5 and 1.6 shots at goal suggest he finds the ball in dangerous positions when fit and firing. The Geelong matchup history is doing the heavy lifting — back it with measured confidence.