Talor Byrne (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-263)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Talor Byrne's home form is the key driver here. Across his last five home games, he's averaging 2.0 goals on 3.4 shots at goal with a 58.3% accuracy rate — well above his overall L5 average of 1.2 goals at 33.3%. That home/away split is significant, and Marvel Stadium is where Byrne consistently converts. He's also averaging 1.4 marks inside 50 and 6.2 score involvements at home, pointing to genuine forward presence rather than peripheral involvement.
The model projects 1.2 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 2.7% edge over the implied probability of 72.5% at $1.38. His overall hit rate of 3/4 across the last four games adds further confidence. The one concern is a flat L5 record against Fremantle specifically, but home-ground advantage and his shot volume make this a credible edge worth backing at the current price.