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The latest Bet Better model pick for Steely Green is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 47%, for a model edge of +13.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Steely Green

Richmond

+13.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 +112 (2.12)
+13.2% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 27 Jul, 4:10AM
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Model Probability
60.3%
Implied Probability
47.2%
Model Edge
+13.2%
Predicted Value
0.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals60.3%—47.2%1.66+13.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Steely Green (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (+112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Steely Green has been knocking on the door with an average of 0.6 goals per game in his last five matches, despite a slight dip in goal accuracy. His involvement in creating scoring opportunities is evident with 1.8 score involvements per game. Facing Collingwood, against whom he averages 0 goals, may not seem promising; however, his recent form suggests he's due for a breakthrough. With an average of 0.6 shots on goal and the model predicting him to score 0.7 times, there's a 13.2% edge favoring him to snag a goal. Playing at home in Melbourne, where he's comfortable, enhances his chances to split the middle, making him an enticing pick to score anytime.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 0.5
0.2avg goals L5
Home0.8vs Hawthorn1Season best3
O 0.550%
O 1.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.8 · hi 3 · lo 0
003101

Steely Green has gone over 0.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.2 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Steely Green (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Steely Green is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.2% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 27 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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