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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Steely Green is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 47%, for a model edge of +13.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 12:41AM UTC
AFL

Steely Green

Richmond

+13.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 +112 (2.12) · $100→$212
+13.2% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 27 Jul, 4:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
60.3%
Implied Probability
47.2%
Model Edge
+13.2%
Predicted Value
0.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals60.3%47.2%1.66+13.2%

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AI Analysis

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Steely Green (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (+112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Steely Green has been knocking on the door with an average of 0.6 goals per game in his last five matches, despite a slight dip in goal accuracy. His involvement in creating scoring opportunities is evident with 1.8 score involvements per game. Facing Collingwood, against whom he averages 0 goals, may not seem promising; however, his recent form suggests he's due for a breakthrough. With an average of 0.6 shots on goal and the model predicting him to score 0.7 times, there's a 13.2% edge favoring him to snag a goal. Playing at home in Melbourne, where he's comfortable, enhances his chances to split the middle, making him an enticing pick to score anytime.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Steely Green averaged 8.7 disposals, 0.8 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 6 games in 2024.

8.7
Disposals
0.8
Goals
2.3
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs North Melbourne), Steely Green recorded 6 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24North Melbourne6112
28 Jul 24Collingwood11020
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide13130
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS11342
25 May 24Essendon6040
18 May 24Brisbane Lions5002
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Steely Green (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Steely Green is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.2% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 27 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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