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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Grlj is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Sam Grlj

Richmond

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -222 (1.45)
+2.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
71.4%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+2.4%
Predicted Value
16.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.4%69.0%1.40+2.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Sam Grlj (Richmond) Over 13.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player in the disposals market, you want someone who's not just consistent but also capable of turning up the heat when it matters most. Enter Sam Grlj of the Richmond Tigers, a midfield maestro who's been carving out a reputation for himself as a possession magnet. In his last five home games, Grlj has been a force to be reckoned with, racking up an average of 16.5 disposals per game, comfortably above the set line of 13.5. What's even more impressive is his ability to maintain a high disposal efficiency of 73.8%, showing he's not just getting the ball but using it wisely. With a recent hit streak and a knack for impacting games, Grlj is poised to continue his stellar form against the Brisbane Lions at Ninja Stadium. Over 13.5 disposals for Grlj? It's a bet that's as solid as his ball-handling skills.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 12.5
13avg disposals L5
Home15
O 10.580%
O 11.580%
O 12.580%
O 13.560%
O 14.550%
O 15.550%

Sam Grlj has gone over 12.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 13 disposals).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 13.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sam Grlj (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Grlj is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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