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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Docherty is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 69%, edge +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:18PM UTC
AFL

Sam Docherty

Carlton

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+4.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 24 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
22.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.6% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +4.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.6%—69.4%1.36+4.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Docherty (Carlton) Over 19.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Docherty's recent form and matchup against Hawthorn support betting on him to exceed 19.5 disposals. With an average of 18.4 disposals in his last five away games and facing a Hawthorn side where his last five games against them have seen him average 26 disposals, Docherty is poised to surpass the set line. His consistency in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained, coupled with a solid disposal efficiency of 67.7%, indicates his ability to meet or exceed this mark. Despite his hit rate not being stellar, his overall performance metrics against Hawthorn suggest a favorable opportunity for him to achieve over 19.5 disposals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Docherty recorded 16 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions16132
8 Mar 24Brisbane Lions10051
23 Sep 23Brisbane Lions19155
15 Sep 23Melbourne19063
8 Sep 23Sydney Swans21163
19 Aug 23Gold Coast SUNS25022
12 Aug 23Melbourne22144
6 Aug 23St Kilda26076
28 Jul 23Collingwood18037
22 Jul 23West Coast Eagles29078
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Docherty (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Docherty is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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