Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Docherty is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:12PM UTC
AFL

Sam Docherty

Carlton

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+4.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 24 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.6%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+4.1%
Predicted Value
22.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.6%69.4%1.36+4.1%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sam Docherty (Carlton) Over 19.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Docherty's recent form and matchup against Hawthorn support betting on him to exceed 19.5 disposals. With an average of 18.4 disposals in his last five away games and facing a Hawthorn side where his last five games against them have seen him average 26 disposals, Docherty is poised to surpass the set line. His consistency in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained, coupled with a solid disposal efficiency of 67.7%, indicates his ability to meet or exceed this mark. Despite his hit rate not being stellar, his overall performance metrics against Hawthorn suggest a favorable opportunity for him to achieve over 19.5 disposals.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.5avg disposals recent
Season best34
Disposals last 10avg 20.5 · hi 29 · lo 10
29182622252119191016

Sam Docherty has a disposals high of 34 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Sam Docherty (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Docherty is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.