Sam Docherty (Carlton) Over 19.5 Disposals (-238)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sam Docherty is poised to shine in this matchup based on his recent form and historical performance against Hawthorn. With a model prediction of 22.7 disposals, Docherty's L5 stats indicate he comfortably averages 18.4 disposals in away games, surpassing the set line of 19.5. His consistency in contested possessions (3.6) and kicks (12.8) further support this bet. Additionally, his strong disposal efficiency (67.7%) and ability to gain meters (348) make him a valuable asset likely to exceed the line. Despite a modest hit rate, Docherty's current form and matchup history against Hawthorn suggest a high probability of hitting this over.