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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Docherty is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
AFL

Sam Docherty

Carlton

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -227 (1.44)
+4.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 24 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
73.6%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+4.1%
Predicted Value
22.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.6%—69.4%1.36+4.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Docherty (Carlton) Over 19.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Docherty's recent form and matchup against Hawthorn support betting on him to exceed 19.5 disposals. With an average of 18.4 disposals in his last five away games and facing a Hawthorn side where his last five games against them have seen him average 26 disposals, Docherty is poised to surpass the set line. His consistency in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained, coupled with a solid disposal efficiency of 67.7%, indicates his ability to meet or exceed this mark. Despite his hit rate not being stellar, his overall performance metrics against Hawthorn suggest a favorable opportunity for him to achieve over 19.5 disposals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.5avg disposals recent
Season best34
Disposals last 10avg 20.5 · hi 29 · lo 10
29182622252119191016

Sam Docherty has a disposals high of 34 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Docherty (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Docherty is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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