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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Retschko is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:13AM UTC
AFL

Patrick Retschko

Richmond

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -303 (1.33)
+0.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
75.3%
Implied Probability
75.2%
Model Edge
+0.1%
Predicted Value
17.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.3%—75.2%1.33+0.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Retschko (Richmond) Over 14.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to go over 14.5 disposals, Patrick Retschko of the Richmond Tigers is the man to watch in their clash against the Hawthorn Hawks at the iconic MCG. Retschko's recent form at home has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 19.2 disposals in his last five games at the MCG. With an impressive average of 11 kicks and 8.2 handballs per game during this period, he's been a key playmaker for the Tigers, consistently racking up the numbers. Add in his solid disposal efficiency of 72.0% and an average of 4 intercepts per game, and you have a player who not only finds the ball but uses it effectively. Retschko's ability to impact the game both in contested and uncontested situations makes him a strong contender to surpass the 14.5 disposal mark once again.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
18.2avg disposals L5
Home19.2
O 16.550%
O 17.550%
O 18.530%
O 19.530%
O 20.530%
O 21.530%

Patrick Retschko has gone over 18.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.2 disposals).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 14.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Patrick Retschko (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Retschko is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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