Patrick Lipinski (Collingwood) Under 16.5 Disposals (-127)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Patrick Lipinski's recent home form indicates he averages 18 disposals per game but faces a tough opponent in Brisbane Lions, against whom he averages 15.8 disposals. With a model predicting 15 disposals for him and a standard deviation of 5, the edge of 5.9% suggests he may struggle to surpass the 16.5 line. Lipinski’s contested possessions (7.2) and turnovers (3) also hint at potential difficulty meeting the line. Despite a solid overall disposalefficiency (70.4%), his recent performances suggest he may not reach the line given the matchup. Considering his hit rates/streaks and the implied probability of 55.9%, betting on Lipinski to go under 16.5 disposals seems a logical choice for this game at the MCG.