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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Lipinski is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 71%, edge +2.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:39PM UTC
AFL

Patrick Lipinski

Collingwood

+2.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+2.8% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 10 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
19.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.7% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +2.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.7%—70.9%1.36+2.8%

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Lipinski (Collingwood) Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in the AFL, you want someone who's in the thick of the action, making things happen. That's why Patrick Lipinski of the Collingwood Magpies is our man for this bet. In his last five home games, Lipinski has been a ball magnet, averaging a solid 20.6 disposals per game. What's even more impressive is his consistency, boasting a 100% hit rate in hitting over 16.5 disposals at home. Facing North Melbourne, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 14.4 disposals, Lipinski is poised to take control of the midfield once again. With his recent form, high disposalefficiency, and ability to find space, backing Lipinski to go over 16.5 disposals is a smart move for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Patrick Lipinski averaged 17.5 disposals, 0.8 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

17.5
Disposals
0.8
Goals
3.2
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Melbourne), Patrick Lipinski recorded 30 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Melbourne302123
17 Aug 24Brisbane Lions16026
9 Aug 24Sydney Swans16121
3 Aug 24Carlton4011
28 Jul 24Richmond9131
20 Jul 24Hawthorn21033
12 Jul 24Geelong Cats11133
5 Jul 24Essendon11030
29 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS21133
16 Jun 24North Melbourne16015
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Patrick Lipinski (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Lipinski is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.8% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies on Friday 10 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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