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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Lipinski is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +2.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:27PM UTC
AFL

Patrick Lipinski

Collingwood

+2.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -244 (1.41)
+2.8% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 10 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
73.7%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+2.8%
Predicted Value
19.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.7%—70.9%1.36+2.8%

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Lipinski (Collingwood) Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in the AFL, you want someone who's in the thick of the action, making things happen. That's why Patrick Lipinski of the Collingwood Magpies is our man for this bet. In his last five home games, Lipinski has been a ball magnet, averaging a solid 20.6 disposals per game. What's even more impressive is his consistency, boasting a 100% hit rate in hitting over 16.5 disposals at home. Facing North Melbourne, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 14.4 disposals, Lipinski is poised to take control of the midfield once again. With his recent form, high disposalefficiency, and ability to find space, backing Lipinski to go over 16.5 disposals is a smart move for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.5avg disposals recent
Season best30
Disposals last 10avg 15.5 · hi 30 · lo 4
162111112194161630

Patrick Lipinski has a disposals high of 30 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.6avg goals recent
Season best4
Goals last 10avg 0.6 · hi 2 · lo 0
0101010102

Patrick Lipinski has a goals high of 4 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Patrick Lipinski (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Lipinski is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.8% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies on Friday 10 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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