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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Orazio Fantasia is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 75%, implied 63%, edge +11.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:36PM UTC
AFL

Orazio Fantasia

Carlton

+11.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -169 (1.59) · $100→$159
+11.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 10 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.5% · the book's price implies 62.9% · gap +11.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.5%62.9%1.34+11.7%

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AI Analysis

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Orazio Fantasia (Carlton) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Orazio Fantasia is a strong bet to score anytime against Brisbane Lions based on his recent form and matchup. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 home games and a goal accuracy of 80%, Fantasia consistently threatens the opposition's defense. His involvement in scoring opportunities, averaging 3.6 score involvements per game, coupled with an average of 1.4 shots at goal, indicates his active presence in attacking plays. Facing an opponent he has historically performed well against, averaging 0.3 goals in his last 5 matchups, Fantasia's goal-scoring ability is likely to shine through. The model's prediction of 1 goal aligns with his recent performance, making this bet appealing with a solid 11.7% edge.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Orazio Fantasia averaged 8.5 disposals, 0.6 goals and 1.9 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.

8.5
Disposals
0.6
Goals
1.9
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Orazio Fantasia recorded 11 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions11121
25 Aug 24St Kilda10112
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS5101
30 Jun 24Richmond13452
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats9031
30 May 24Port Adelaide10022
25 May 24Gold Coast SUNS10031
17 May 24Sydney Swans8023
3 May 24Collingwood5002
20 Apr 24GWS GIANTS6020
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Orazio Fantasia (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Orazio Fantasia is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues on Thursday 10 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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