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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Watson is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 70%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 8:58AM UTC
AFL

Nick Watson

Hawthorn

Value call

Nick Watson (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Marks Over 1.5 that pays $143 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
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Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
2.7 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.4% · before adjusting for past results 72.7% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap -8.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks72.7%61.4%69.9%1.63+2.7%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Nick Watson Over 1.5 Marks (-233)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Nick Watson to get over 1.5 marks tonight, he just needs to catch the ball a couple of times. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to do this, especially considering he's been getting more opportunities lately. The way he plays, with his strong positioning and ability to find space, makes him likely to get his hands on the ball. One thing to watch out for is the tough Brisbane Lions defense, which can make it hard for any player to get marks. Still, Watson has shown he can rise to the occasion, and with the game at the MCG, it should be a lively atmosphere that helps him shine.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Nick Watson averaged 10.8 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

10.8
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.1
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Nick Watson recorded 9 disposals and 3 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide9312
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs11463
24 Aug 24North Melbourne15341
18 Aug 24Richmond12343
11 Aug 24Carlton17062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS4025
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows10213
20 Jul 24Collingwood12312
13 Jul 24Fremantle12132
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats9015
Quick answers:How many disposals does Nick Watson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 1.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 1.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nick Watson (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Watson is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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