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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Watson is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 77 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 77%, implied 75%, edge +1.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:47PM UTC
AFL

Nick Watson

Hawthorn

+1.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+1.9% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 19 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
77 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.1% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +1.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals77.1%—75.2%1.30+1.9%

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AI Analysis

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Nick Watson (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nick Watson is positioned for success in the Anytime Goalscorer market based on his recent L5 stats. With an average of 1.2 goals per game in away matches, facing Geelong where he has historically scored 1 goal on average, Watson's goal-scoring consistency is evident. Additionally, his impressive goal accuracy of 51.7% and active involvement in scoring opportunities with 5.8 score involvements per game suggest he's a reliable offensive threat. Given his recent performance trends, including a solid shots-at-goal average of 3 per game, Watson is poised to snag a goal against Geelong, making the Over 0.5 goal line a favorable bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Nick Watson averaged 10.8 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

10.8
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.1
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Nick Watson recorded 9 disposals and 3 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide9312
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs11463
24 Aug 24North Melbourne15341
18 Aug 24Richmond12343
11 Aug 24Carlton17062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS4025
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows10213
20 Jul 24Collingwood12312
13 Jul 24Fremantle12132
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats9015
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Watson (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Watson is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats on Friday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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