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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Vlastuin is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +5.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Nick Vlastuin

Richmond

+5.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -185 (1.54)
+5.4% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
70.3%
Implied Probability
64.9%
Model Edge
+5.4%
Predicted Value
19.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%—64.9%1.42+5.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Vlastuin (Richmond) Over 16.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to solid wagering opportunities, Nick Vlastuin stands out for the upcoming clash against North Melbourne. His recent away form paints a picture of consistency and impact. Over his last five away games, Vlastuin has averaged a healthy 15.4 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 16.5 line set for this game. What's particularly enticing is his ability to find the footy in various ways. Averaging 11.4 kicks and 4 handballs in away games, Vlastuin showcases his two-way contribution. His defensive prowess is evident with 5.6 intercepts per game, while his disposal efficiency of 88.3% ensures he maximizes every possession. Facing North Melbourne, a team he has historically performed well against, Vlastuin's recent averages of 15 disposals suggest he's poised to continue his impact. With a model prediction of 19.2 disposals and a solid edge, backing Vlastuin to go over 16.5 disposals is a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 14.5
15avg disposals L5
Home15vs Hawthorn22Season best29
O 13.570%
O 14.570%
O 15.560%
O 16.540%
O 17.540%
O 18.540%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 20.9 · hi 26 · lo 14
14232119172321212426

Nick Vlastuin has gone over 14.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15 disposals, best 29).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 16.5 Over -185 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 15.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nick Vlastuin (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Vlastuin is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 19 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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