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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Haynes is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +6.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:33PM UTC
AFL

Nick Haynes

Carlton

+6.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+6.9% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 9 Apr, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+6.9%
Predicted Value
17.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%64.1%1.41+6.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Haynes (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a bet on Nick Haynes to surpass 14.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Haynes has been a consistent force on the field, averaging 18.8 disposals in his last five away games, comfortably exceeding the set line. His recent form is nothing short of impressive, with a stellar contested possessions average of 5.4 and a knack for intercepts, showcasing his ability to impact the game across the ground. With an unblemished hit streak of 8 in away games and a solid overall hit rate of 14/17, Haynes is poised to continue his dominant run. The model's prediction of 17.3 disposals further strengthens the case, making the Over 14.5 disposals market for Haynes a smart play for this showdown at the Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Nick Haynes averaged 17.1 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.9 marks per game across 8 games in 2024.

17.1
Disposals
0.0
Goals
6.9
Marks
1.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Nick Haynes has cleared 12.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o12.5100%
o13.580%
o15.560%
o16.560%
o18.520%
o19.520%
o21.520%
o23.510%
o24.50%
o26.50%
o27.50%
o29.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Nick Haynes is averaging 16.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Western Bulldogs), Nick Haynes recorded 14 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs14021
16 Jun 24Port Adelaide18080
8 Jun 24Hawthorn14051
25 May 24Geelong Cats20092
18 May 24Western Bulldogs250123
11 May 24Essendon17083
16 Mar 24North Melbourne6020
9 Mar 24Collingwood23091
9 Sep 23St Kilda4020
27 Aug 23Carlton6022
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Haynes (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Haynes is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 9 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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