Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Haynes is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +6.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:26PM UTC
AFL

Nick Haynes

Carlton

+6.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -179 (1.56)
+6.9% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 9 Apr, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+6.9%
Predicted Value
17.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%64.1%1.41+6.9%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Nick Haynes (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a bet on Nick Haynes to surpass 14.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Haynes has been a consistent force on the field, averaging 18.8 disposals in his last five away games, comfortably exceeding the set line. His recent form is nothing short of impressive, with a stellar contested possessions average of 5.4 and a knack for intercepts, showcasing his ability to impact the game across the ground. With an unblemished hit streak of 8 in away games and a solid overall hit rate of 14/17, Haynes is poised to continue his dominant run. The model's prediction of 17.3 disposals further strengthens the case, making the Over 14.5 disposals market for Haynes a smart play for this showdown at the Adelaide Oval.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.7avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 14.7 · hi 25 · lo 4
64236172520141814

Nick Haynes has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Nick Haynes (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Haynes is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 9 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks