Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nathan Broad is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Nathan Broad

Richmond

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -256 (1.39)
+0.2% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.2%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+0.2%
Predicted Value
13.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.2%—71.9%1.39+0.2%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Nathan Broad (Richmond) Over 10.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Nathan Broad hitting the 'Disposals Over' of 10.5 against Fremantle, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, Broad has been a consistent force, averaging 13.8 disposals, well above the line. Facing Fremantle, he has historically stepped up, averaging 15.5 disposals in their recent matchups. His recent form boasts a solid disposal efficiency of 74.4% and an impressive 155.2 meters gained on average per game. With a current hit streak on the road and a strong hit rate overall, Broad appears primed to shine in this clash. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, creating opportunities and driving the Tigers forward as he looks to snag this bet.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.2avg disposals L5
Home13.4vs Hawthorn17.8Season best27
O 12.560%
O 13.550%
O 14.540%
O 15.520%
O 16.510%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 16.2 · hi 27 · lo 11
15111215182716161814

Nathan Broad has gone over 14.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14.2 disposals, best 27).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Nathan Broad (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nathan Broad is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 28 March at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks