Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Cottrell is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Matthew Cottrell

Carlton

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -244 (1.41)
+1.4% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.4%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+1.4%
Predicted Value
14.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%70.9%1.38+1.4%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Matthew Cottrell (Carlton) Over 11.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk about Matthew Cottrell and why he's a prime pick for the 'Player Disposals Over' market in the upcoming clash between the Carlton Blues and the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. Cottrell has been a beacon of consistency in his recent away games, averaging a solid 13.8 disposals with an impressive disposal efficiency of 71.9%. In his last five games against the Magpies, he's maintained an average of 13.2 disposals, showcasing his ability to perform against this specific opponent. With his current form, boasting an average of 14.4 disposals over the past five games, including a streak of five successful outings, Cottrell seems poised to surpass the 11.5 disposals line set by the bookies. His knack for finding the footy, coupled with his recent hit rates, makes him a reliable option to snag those crucial possessions in the midfield battle. So, back Cottrell to shine and rack up those disposals come game day!

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
10.7avg disposals recent
Season best19
Disposals last 10avg 10.7 · hi 19 · lo 6
111299167619108

Matthew Cottrell has a disposals high of 19 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 11.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 10.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 11.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Matthew Cottrell (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Cottrell is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks