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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Cottrell is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 71%, edge +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:20PM UTC
AFL

Matthew Cottrell

Carlton

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+1.4% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
14.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.4% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +1.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%70.9%1.38+1.4%

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AI Analysis

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Matthew Cottrell (Carlton) Over 11.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk about Matthew Cottrell and why he's a prime pick for the 'Player Disposals Over' market in the upcoming clash between the Carlton Blues and the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. Cottrell has been a beacon of consistency in his recent away games, averaging a solid 13.8 disposals with an impressive disposal efficiency of 71.9%. In his last five games against the Magpies, he's maintained an average of 13.2 disposals, showcasing his ability to perform against this specific opponent. With his current form, boasting an average of 14.4 disposals over the past five games, including a streak of five successful outings, Cottrell seems poised to surpass the 11.5 disposals line set by the bookies. His knack for finding the footy, coupled with his recent hit rates, makes him a reliable option to snag those crucial possessions in the midfield battle. So, back Cottrell to shine and rack up those disposals come game day!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Matthew Cottrell averaged 10.9 disposals, 0.6 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 14 games in 2024.

10.9
Disposals
0.6
Goals
3.2
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Matthew Cottrell has cleared 9.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.5100%
o10.5100%
o12.580%
o13.570%
o15.560%
o16.540%
o18.510%
o19.50%
o21.50%
o22.50%
o24.50%
o25.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Matthew Cottrell is averaging 15.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

15.8
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Matthew Cottrell recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24Collingwood8031
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide10152
21 Jul 24North Melbourne19075
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs6013
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS7011
9 May 24Melbourne16051
3 May 24Collingwood9140
27 Apr 24Geelong Cats9111
20 Apr 24GWS GIANTS12124
13 Apr 24Adelaide Crows11133
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 11.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 10.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 11.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Matthew Cottrell (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Cottrell is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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