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AFL

Matthew Cottrell

Carlton

Value call

Matthew Cottrell (Carlton) has one live pick today: over 1.5 tackles that pays $145 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
2.6 tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.0% · before adjusting for past results 70.6% · the book's price implies 69.0% · gap -9.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Matthew Cottrell
over 1.5 tackles
Tackles Over 1.5 -222 (1.45) · $100→$145
Value call
LEANWins about 59 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.50 Odds-222
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Cottrell is Over 1.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 69%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:01PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles70.6%59.0%69.0%1.69+1.6%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Matthew Cottrell Over 1.5 Tackles (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matthew Cottrell is set to get over 1.5 tackles in this game at odds of -222. Our numbers have a good feeling about this bet because Carlton has a strong track record of winning contested balls, which usually means more tackling opportunities. In their last 10 games, Carlton has won contested balls by nearly 9 per game, which is impressive. However, it's worth noting that the Geelong Cats have a solid defense and can be tough to break through. Still, with Cottrell's role in a high-pressure game, he should find chances to make those tackles. It's a good pick, but remember, every game is different!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Matthew Cottrell averaged 10.9 disposals, 0.6 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 14 games in 2024.

10.9
Disposals
0.6
Goals
3.2
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Matthew Cottrell recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24Collingwood8031
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide10152
21 Jul 24North Melbourne19075
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs6013
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS7011
9 May 24Melbourne16051
3 May 24Collingwood9140
27 Apr 24Geelong Cats9111
20 Apr 24GWS GIANTS12124
13 Apr 24Adelaide Crows11133
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Tackles 1.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 11.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 10.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matthew Cottrell (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Cottrell is Over 1.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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