Luke Trainor (Richmond) Under 15.5 Disposals (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Luke Trainor's recent form, especially at home, suggests he's likely to fall short of the 15.5 disposal line. With a model-predicted average of 14.3 disposals and a solid 70.3% disposal efficiency in his last five home games, Trainor's trend of averaging 14.4 disposals at home further supports this bet. His consistency in contested possessions (2.2) and turnovers (2.4) also play into the under bet. Despite a slight increase in kicks (10.2), his overall disposals average of 12.6 and recent hit rate of 4/5 for unders make this a statistically sound pick, especially with a model edge of 6.9%.