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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Trainor is Under 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +6.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Luke Trainor

Richmond

+6.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 15.5 -112 (1.89)
+6.9% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 29 Jun, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
59.8%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+6.9%
Predicted Value
14.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals59.8%—52.9%1.67+6.9%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Trainor (Richmond) Under 15.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Luke Trainor's recent form, especially at home, suggests he's likely to fall short of the 15.5 disposal line. With a model-predicted average of 14.3 disposals and a solid 70.3% disposal efficiency in his last five home games, Trainor's trend of averaging 14.4 disposals at home further supports this bet. His consistency in contested possessions (2.2) and turnovers (2.4) also play into the under bet. Despite a slight increase in kicks (10.2), his overall disposals average of 12.6 and recent hit rate of 4/5 for unders make this a statistically sound pick, especially with a model edge of 6.9%.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Luke Trainor - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Luke Trainor (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Trainor is Under 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 29 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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