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The latest Bet Better model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 60%, edge +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 24, 2:34AM UTC
AFL

Koltyn Tholstrup

Melbourne

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -152 (1.66) · $100→$166
+12.1% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
17.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.4% · the book's price implies 60.2% · gap +12.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%—60.2%1.38+12.1%

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AI Analysis

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Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) Over 14.5 Disposals (-152)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Koltyn Tholstrup's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure in the Melbourne Demons' midfield. Over his last five away games, he's been averaging a solid 15.4 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 14.5 line set by the bookies. With an impressive 74.3% disposal efficiency and an average of 11 kicks per game, Tholstrup has been a reliable ball-mover for the Demons. Against North Melbourne, he's been even more dominant, averaging 8.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With his consistent performance and ability to generate meters gained (420.6 avg), Tholstrup is poised to continue his midfield influence. The odds are in our favor for him to snag over 14.5 disposals in this upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Koltyn Tholstrup averaged 11.7 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.4 marks per game across 10 games in 2024.

11.7
Disposals
0.5
Goals
2.4
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Koltyn Tholstrup recorded 9 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood9233
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS18145
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide13030
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs12015
21 Jul 24Fremantle6020
13 Jul 24Essendon14007
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12253
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions16002
22 Jun 24North Melbourne10057
11 Apr 24Brisbane Lions7014
Quick answers:How many disposals does Koltyn Tholstrup average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 13.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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