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AFL

Koltyn Tholstrup

Melbourne

Value call

Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) has one live pick today: over 14.5 disposals that pays $168 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
17.4 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.4% · the book's price implies 59.5% · gap +12.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 4:15 PM AEST
Koltyn Tholstrup
over 14.5 disposals
Disposals Over 14.5 -147 (1.68) · $100→$168
Value call
HIGHWins about 72 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.80 Odds-147
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 60%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:05PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%—59.5%1.38+12.9%

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AI Analysis

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Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) Over 14.5 Disposals (-147)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Koltyn Tholstrup to go over 14.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against North Melbourne, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Over his last five away games, Tholstrup has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 15.4 disposals with a knack for gaining territory, racking up an impressive 420.6 meters gained on average. His disposal efficiency stands at a respectable 74.3%, showcasing his ability to make those possessions count. With an overall hit rate of 10 out of his last 15 games, Tholstrup is in form and hungry for more. Against North Melbourne's midfield, where he has averaged 8.5 disposals over his last five clashes, Tholstrup has a prime opportunity to stamp his authority and surpass the 14.5 disposals mark. This bet isn't just a shot in the dark; it's a calculated play based on Tholstrup's recent form and matchup advantages.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Koltyn Tholstrup averaged 11.7 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.4 marks per game across 10 games in 2024.

11.7
Disposals
0.5
Goals
2.4
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Koltyn Tholstrup recorded 9 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood9233
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS18145
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide13030
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs12015
21 Jul 24Fremantle6020
13 Jul 24Essendon14007
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12253
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions16002
22 Jun 24North Melbourne10057
11 Apr 24Brisbane Lions7014
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -147 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 13.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.9% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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