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The latest Bet Better model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 13, 10:24AM UTC
AFL

Koltyn Tholstrup

Melbourne

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -588 (1.17)
+3.0% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
88.5%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+3.0%
Predicted Value
17.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.5%—85.5%1.13+3.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Koltyn Tholstrup for this weekend's clash between North Melbourne and Melbourne. Tholstrup, the ball magnet for the Demons, has been in fine form lately. Over his last five away games, he's been averaging a solid 15.4 disposals, showcasing his ability to find the footy all over the ground. Facing North Melbourne, a team he's been averaging 8.5 disposals against in their recent matchups, Tholstrup is poised to exceed the bookies' line of 11.5 disposals. With his impeccable disposal efficiency of 74.3% and an average of 11 kicks per game, he's a safe bet to rack up the possessions. Considering his overall hit rate of 9 out of the last 10 games, including a current streak, backing Tholstrup to go over 11.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this weekend's game at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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