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The latest Bet Better model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 2, 12:46PM UTC
AFL

Koltyn Tholstrup

Melbourne

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -152 (1.66)
+12.1% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
72.4%
Implied Probability
60.2%
Model Edge
+12.1%
Predicted Value
17.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%—60.2%1.38+12.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) Over 14.5 Disposals (-152)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Koltyn Tholstrup's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure in the Melbourne Demons' midfield. Over his last five away games, he's been averaging a solid 15.4 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 14.5 line set by the bookies. With an impressive 74.3% disposal efficiency and an average of 11 kicks per game, Tholstrup has been a reliable ball-mover for the Demons. Against North Melbourne, he's been even more dominant, averaging 8.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With his consistent performance and ability to generate meters gained (420.6 avg), Tholstrup is poised to continue his midfield influence. The odds are in our favor for him to snag over 14.5 disposals in this upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 16.5
16.8avg disposals L5
Away15.4vs Gold Coast SUNS14.3Season best18
O 14.560%
O 15.550%
O 16.550%
O 17.530%
O 18.530%
O 19.530%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)avg 11.7 · hi 18 · lo 6
71016121461213189

Koltyn Tholstrup has gone over 16.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 16.8 disposals, best 18).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 13.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Koltyn Tholstrup is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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