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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:31PM UTC
AFL

Jake Bowey

Melbourne

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+1.7% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.6%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+1.7%
Predicted Value
24.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.6%—71.9%1.36+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Jake Bowey (Melbourne) Over 21.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jake Bowey, it's clear he's been a midfield maestro lately, consistently racking up disposals like a seasoned pro. Over his last 5 home games, he's been a standout performer, averaging a whopping 26.2 disposals per game. Facing off against Fremantle, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 23.2 disposals in their previous encounters, the stage is set for Bowey to shine once again. With his recent form showing a rock-solid average of 26.6 disposals over his last 5 games overall, it's no surprise he's riding a hot streak with a hit rate of 4/4. Bowey's ability to find the ball in traffic and drive his team forward makes taking the Over 21.5 disposals a smart bet for this upcoming clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
16.2avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 16.2 · hi 25 · lo 8
2215131213151625238

Jake Bowey has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 21.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 21.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 20.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Bowey (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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