Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +4.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Jake Bowey

Melbourne

+4.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -222 (1.45)
+4.7% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.6%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+4.7%
Predicted Value
24.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.6%—69.0%1.36+4.7%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jake Bowey (Melbourne) Over 21.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Bowey has been a standout for the Melbourne Demons lately, consistently racking up disposals with an average of 22.6 per game in his last five away matches. His precise foot skills, evident from a stellar 76.9% disposalefficiency rate, make him a key playmaker. Facing North Melbourne, who he averages 17 disposals against, Bowey is poised to shine. His ability to find space and create opportunities is reflected in his 16.8 kicks and 5.8 handballs per game on the road. With a solid L5 performance, including 4.4 intercepts and 429 metres gained on average, Bowey is well-positioned to surpass the 21.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. Bet confidently on Bowey to surpass expectations and snag those crucial disposals at Marvel Stadium.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
16.2avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 16.2 · hi 25 · lo 8
2215131213151625238

Jake Bowey has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 21.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 20.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jake Bowey (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.7% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks