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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 50 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 50%, implied 69%, edge +3.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:41PM UTC
AFL

Jake Bowey

Melbourne

+3.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -222 (1.45) · $100→$145
+3.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
25.9 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.1% · the book's price implies 69.0% · gap +3.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.1%49.9%69.0%2.01+3.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jake Bowey (Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player in the disposals market, you want a consistent performer who can impact the game. Jake Bowey fits that bill perfectly. In his last five home games, Bowey has been a magnet for the footy, averaging a solid 26.8 disposals. With a knack for finding space and making the right decisions, he's been efficient with an 83.5% disposal rate. Against Carlton, Bowey has also been reliable, averaging 14.5 disposals in his last five matchups. His recent form suggests he's in the zone, hitting an average of 24.6 disposals overall. With these numbers in mind, the Over 22.5 disposals line for Bowey looks like a smart bet to snag in this upcoming clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Jake Bowey averaged 16.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 14 games in 2024.

16.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.6
Marks
1.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jake Bowey has cleared 16.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o16.5100%
o17.5100%
o19.580%
o21.580%
o23.580%
o24.560%
o26.540%
o28.530%
o30.510%
o31.50%
o33.50%
o35.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jake Bowey is averaging 24.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

24.6
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Jake Bowey recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood8011
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS23051
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs25043
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS16081
21 Jul 24Fremantle15073
13 Jul 24Essendon13051
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12051
22 Jun 24North Melbourne13010
10 Jun 24Collingwood15060
2 Jun 24Fremantle22062
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 21.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 21.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 20.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Bowey (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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