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AFL

Jake Bowey

Melbourne

Value call

Jake Bowey (Melbourne) has one live pick today: over 22.5 disposals that pays $184 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
47 in 100
Predicted
25.9 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 47.1% · before adjusting for past results 72.1% · the book's price implies 54.3% · gap -7.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 7:35 PM AEST
Jake Bowey
over 22.5 disposals
Disposals Over 22.5 -119 (1.84) · $100→$184
Value call
LEANWins about 47 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.40 Odds-119
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 47 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 47%, the price says 54%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 8:19PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.1%47.1%54.3%1.99+17.7%

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AI Analysis

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Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues: Jake Bowey Over 22.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Melbourne has been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They are really good at winning the ball, snagging about 12 more contested possessions than they give up. This gives their players a chance to rack up disposals, and Jake Bowey is one of those players who can take advantage of it. Bowey has been showing he can hit over 22.5 disposals. However, Carlton has also been strong, winning 8 of their last 10 and only allowing around 78 points a game. That means they can limit scoring opportunities. Still, with Melbourne's current form and Bowey's potential, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jake Bowey averaged 16.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 14 games in 2024.

16.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.6
Marks
1.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Jake Bowey recorded 8 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood8011
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS23051
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs25043
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS16081
21 Jul 24Fremantle15073
13 Jul 24Essendon13051
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12051
22 Jun 24North Melbourne13010
10 Jun 24Collingwood15060
2 Jun 24Fremantle22062
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 22.5 Over -119 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Kicks 13.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 21.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Fantasy — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Bowey (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Bowey is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.7% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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