Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kane McAuliffe is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Kane McAuliffe

Richmond

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -238 (1.42)
+1.4% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.8%
Implied Probability
70.4%
Model Edge
+1.4%
Predicted Value
20.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.8%—70.4%1.39+1.4%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Kane McAuliffe (Richmond) Over 17.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to pinpointing a player primed to dominate the disposal count, Kane McAuliffe stands out like a beacon in the upcoming clash between the Richmond Tigers and the Carlton Blues at the iconic MCG. McAuliffe's recent form paints a picture of consistency and impact, with an impressive average of 17.6 disposals in his last five home games. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's historically tallied 12.5 disposals against, McAuliffe's knack for finding the ball is set to shine. With a solid disposal efficiency of 71.7% and a knack for gaining meters, McAuliffe's ability to influence the game is undeniable. Add in his current hit streak and a home hit rate of 4/5, and the Over 17.5 disposals line for McAuliffe presents a tantalizing opportunity for punters looking to ride the hot hand.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.8avg disposals L5
Home17vs Hawthorn6Season best20
O 17.570%
O 18.560%
O 19.540%
O 20.540%
O 21.520%
O 22.520%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 11.4 · hi 20 · lo 4
41220161676913

Kane McAuliffe has gone over 19.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.8 disposals, best 20).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 17.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 16.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 15.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Kane McAuliffe (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kane McAuliffe is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 4 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks