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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Weddle is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +2.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Josh Weddle

Hawthorn

+2.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -238 (1.42)
+2.6% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
73.0%
Implied Probability
70.4%
Model Edge
+2.6%
Predicted Value
16.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.0%—70.4%1.37+2.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Josh Weddle (Hawthorn) Over 13.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to targeting player disposals in the AFL, Josh Weddle of the Hawthorn Hawks stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 13.5 line against the Port Adelaide Power. Over his last 5 home games, Weddle has been a midfield maestro, averaging 16.6 disposals per match. His ability to find space and accumulate possessions is evident, with an impressive 75.8% disposal efficiency. Not only does he find the ball consistently with 8.6 kicks and 8 handballs per game, but he also gains valuable metres for his team, averaging 373.8 metres gained. Facing Port Adelaide recently, Weddle has averaged 16.2 disposals, showcasing his ability to perform against this opponent. With a strong hit rate in both home and overall games, backing Weddle to go over 13.5 disposals is a smart bet with a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17.2avg disposals L5
Away15.2vs Richmond18.3Season best23
O 15.560%
O 16.550%
O 17.530%
O 18.530%
O 19.510%
O 20.510%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 13.3 · hi 18 · lo 7
7101413141813161414

Josh Weddle has gone over 17.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.2 disposals, best 23).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 13.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Josh Weddle (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Weddle is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.6% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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