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AFL

Harry Dean

Carlton

Value call

Harry Dean (Carlton) has one live pick today: over 11.5 disposals that pays $146 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
13.6 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 58.3% · before adjusting for past results 71.2% · the book's price implies 68.5% · gap -10.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Harry Dean
over 11.5 disposals
Disposals Over 11.5 -217 (1.46) · $100→$146
Value call
LEANWins about 58 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.60 Odds-217
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry Dean is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 68%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:03PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.2%58.3%68.5%1.72+2.7%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Harry Dean Over 11.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tonight, Harry Dean needs to get over 11.5 disposals for this bet to win. He has a solid chance because Geelong Cats have been letting teams get inside 50 more often than usual, which means more opportunities for players like him to get the ball. Carlton has been winning the contested ball by a decent amount, showing they can control the game and give Dean chances to rack up his disposals. However, the Cats have been pretty balanced in contested ball and are known to concede points, which could make things tighter than expected. Still, with Carlton winning 8 of their last 10 games, they seem to have good momentum on their side. If they keep pushing, Dean should be able to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Harry Dean - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Harry Dean (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry Dean is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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