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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harrison Petty is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 75%, implied 70%, edge +5.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 12:16AM UTC
AFL

Harrison Petty

Melbourne

+5.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+5.6% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 10 Aug, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.5% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap +5.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals75.5%—69.9%1.32+5.6%

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AI Analysis

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Harrison Petty (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Harrison Petty, with a model prediction of scoring at least one goal in this upcoming home game, presents a solid bet opportunity. His recent performance, averaging 1.6 goals in the last five home games, along with a 60.0% goal accuracy, indicates a strong scoring potential. With an average of 3 shots at goal and 1.4 inside 50s per game, Petty actively contributes to the offensive plays. Additionally, his ability to be involved in scoring opportunities, averaging 4.8 score involvements, enhances his goal-scoring prospects. Considering his opponent's weak defense in allowing goals to defenders recently, Petty's form and the statistical edge make him a favorable choice to snag a goal in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Harrison Petty averaged 8.9 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.8 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

8.9
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.8
Marks
2.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Harrison Petty has cleared 9.5 disposals in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.560%
o10.560%
o11.560%
o12.540%
o13.530%
o14.510%
o16.510%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%
o21.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Harrison Petty is averaging 12.4 disposals per game over his last 5 and 11.6 in home games.

12.4
Disp · Overall
11.6
Disp · Home
3.0
Goals · Overall
2.4
Goals · Home

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Harrison Petty recorded 9 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood9042
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS9381
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide13078
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs9062
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS10163
21 Jul 24Fremantle15165
13 Jul 24Essendon6025
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions15084
22 Jun 24North Melbourne11161
10 Jun 24Collingwood9042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Harrison Petty (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harrison Petty is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 10 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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