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AFL

Conor Nash

Hawthorn

Value call

Conor Nash (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 17.5 disposals that pays $150 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
20.6 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.3% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +6.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 4:15 PM AEST
Conor Nash
over 17.5 disposals
Disposals Over 17.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
Value call
HIGHWins about 73 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.00 Odds-200
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor Nash is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 67%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:02PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.3%—66.7%1.36+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Conor Nash (Hawthorn) Over 17.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Conor Nash, the Irish sensation for the Hawthorn Hawks, is primed to shine in front of the home crowd at Marvel Stadium against the Port Adelaide Power. Over his last five home games, Nash has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 19.2 disposals with a commanding contested possessions average of 9. Facing Port Adelaide, he's elevated his game further, notching up an impressive 16 disposals per matchup. With an average of 10.4 handballs and 8.8 kicks in his recent home performances, Nash is a well-rounded playmaker who can impact the game in multiple ways. His disposal efficiency of 73.9% underscores his precision on the field. Riding a hot streak and boasting a solid hit rate, Nash looks set to exceed the bookmaker's line of 17.5 disposals. Betting on Nash to surpass this mark is a smart move backed by his consistent form and favorable matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Conor Nash averaged 18.9 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.5 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

18.9
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.5
Marks
5.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Conor Nash recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide19029
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs16026
24 Aug 24North Melbourne12003
18 Aug 24Richmond13025
11 Aug 24Carlton25084
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS20003
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows18028
20 Jul 24Collingwood29008
13 Jul 24Fremantle21032
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats17043
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Conor Nash (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor Nash is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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