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The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor Nash is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:38PM UTC
AFL

Conor Nash

Hawthorn

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+6.7% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
73.3%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+6.7%
Predicted Value
20.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.3%—66.7%1.36+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Conor Nash (Hawthorn) Over 17.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Conor Nash, the Irish sensation for the Hawthorn Hawks, is primed to shine in front of the home crowd at Marvel Stadium against the Port Adelaide Power. Over his last five home games, Nash has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 19.2 disposals with a commanding contested possessions average of 9. Facing Port Adelaide, he's elevated his game further, notching up an impressive 16 disposals per matchup. With an average of 10.4 handballs and 8.8 kicks in his recent home performances, Nash is a well-rounded playmaker who can impact the game in multiple ways. His disposal efficiency of 73.9% underscores his precision on the field. Riding a hot streak and boasting a solid hit rate, Nash looks set to exceed the bookmaker's line of 17.5 disposals. Betting on Nash to surpass this mark is a smart move backed by his consistent form and favorable matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19avg disposals recent
Season best32
Disposals last 10avg 19 · hi 29 · lo 12
17212918202513121619

Conor Nash has a disposals high of 32 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -200 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Conor Nash (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor Nash is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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