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AFL

Changkuoth Jiath

Hawthorn

+6.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -227 (1.44)
+6.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne
Sat 24 May, 6:15AM
Model Probability
76.1%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+6.7%
Predicted Value
18.1 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Changkuoth Jiath (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Changkuoth Jiath is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals in the upcoming game against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a model-predicted average of 18.1 disposals and a solid 5 standard deviation, Jiath's recent form, including 17.6 disposals in his last five home games, indicates a consistent performance. His ability to rack up kicks (10.6 average) and meters gained (295 average) against the Lions further supports this bet. Jiath's proficiency in contested possessions (4.6 average) and disposal efficiency (77.2%) enhances his chances to surpass the line. Considering his recent averages and the match venue favoring his playstyle, betting on Jiath to achieve over 14.5 disposals appears to be a promising proposition.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (4 picks) 75.0% (3/4)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 May 25 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 14.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS
24 May 25 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 14.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
24 May 25 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 14.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
24 May 25 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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