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The latest Bet Better model pick for Changkuoth Jiath is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 4:42PM UTC
AFL

Changkuoth Jiath

Hawthorn

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -227 (1.44)
+6.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 24 May, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
76.1%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+6.7%
Predicted Value
18.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.1%—69.4%1.31+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Changkuoth Jiath (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Changkuoth Jiath is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals in the upcoming game against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a model-predicted average of 18.1 disposals and a solid 5 standard deviation, Jiath's recent form, including 17.6 disposals in his last five home games, indicates a consistent performance. His ability to rack up kicks (10.6 average) and meters gained (295 average) against the Lions further supports this bet. Jiath's proficiency in contested possessions (4.6 average) and disposal efficiency (77.2%) enhances his chances to surpass the line. Considering his recent averages and the match venue favoring his playstyle, betting on Jiath to achieve over 14.5 disposals appears to be a promising proposition.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
12.3avg disposals recent
Season best21
Disposals last 10avg 12.3 · hi 20 · lo 7
971012181212201310

Changkuoth Jiath has a disposals high of 21 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Changkuoth Jiath (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Changkuoth Jiath is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 24 May at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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