Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Changkuoth Jiath is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 2:49AM UTC
AFL

Changkuoth Jiath

Hawthorn

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+6.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 24 May, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.1%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+6.7%
Predicted Value
18.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.1%—69.4%1.31+6.7%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Changkuoth Jiath (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Changkuoth Jiath is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals in the upcoming game against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a model-predicted average of 18.1 disposals and a solid 5 standard deviation, Jiath's recent form, including 17.6 disposals in his last five home games, indicates a consistent performance. His ability to rack up kicks (10.6 average) and meters gained (295 average) against the Lions further supports this bet. Jiath's proficiency in contested possessions (4.6 average) and disposal efficiency (77.2%) enhances his chances to surpass the line. Considering his recent averages and the match venue favoring his playstyle, betting on Jiath to achieve over 14.5 disposals appears to be a promising proposition.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Changkuoth Jiath averaged 11.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 11 games in 2024.

11.9
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.0
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (4 Aug 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Changkuoth Jiath recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS10012
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows13033
20 Jul 24Collingwood20041
13 Jul 24Fremantle12034
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats12121
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles18171
15 Jun 24Richmond12063
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS10132
1 Jun 24Adelaide Crows7012
26 May 24Brisbane Lions9012
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Changkuoth Jiath (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Changkuoth Jiath is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 24 May at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.