Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Changkuoth Jiath is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 69%, edge +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 9:48AM UTC
AFL
Changkuoth Jiath
Hawthorn
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+6.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions
@
Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 24 May, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
76 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 76.1% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +6.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 76.1% | — | 69.4% | 1.31 | +6.7% |
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Changkuoth Jiath (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Changkuoth Jiath is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals in the upcoming game against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. With a model-predicted average of 18.1 disposals and a solid 5 standard deviation, Jiath's recent form, including 17.6 disposals in his last five home games, indicates a consistent performance. His ability to rack up kicks (10.6 average) and meters gained (295 average) against the Lions further supports this bet. Jiath's proficiency in contested possessions (4.6 average) and disposal efficiency (77.2%) enhances his chances to surpass the line. Considering his recent averages and the match venue favoring his playstyle, betting on Jiath to achieve over 14.5 disposals appears to be a promising proposition.
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Season averages (2024)
Changkuoth Jiath averaged 11.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 11 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (4 Aug 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Changkuoth Jiath recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 4 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Adelaide Crows | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Collingwood | 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Fremantle | 12 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Geelong Cats | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 30 Jun 24 | West Coast Eagles | 18 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 15 Jun 24 | Richmond | 12 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 Jun 24 | GWS GIANTS | 10 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 Jun 24 | Adelaide Crows | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 26 May 24 | Brisbane Lions | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Changkuoth Jiath (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Changkuoth Jiath is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 24 May at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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