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The latest Bet Better model pick for Chad Warner is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:30PM UTC
AFL

Chad Warner

Sydney Swans

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -714 (1.14)
+0.5% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
88.2%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+0.5%
Predicted Value
24.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.2%—87.7%1.13+0.5%

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AI Analysis

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Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) Over 18.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Chad Warner, the rising star of the Sydney Swans, is set to shine bright on home turf at the SCG against the Adelaide Crows. Warner's recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging a whopping 25.8 disposals in his last five home games. His ability to find the footy in contested situations, coupled with his exceptional disposal efficiency of 53.4%, makes him a midfield force to be reckoned with. Facing a familiar foe in the Crows, Warner has historically stepped up, averaging 21.5 disposals in his last five matchups against them. With a current hit streak of 7 at home and 6 overall, Warner is in prime form to surpass the 18.5 disposal line set by the bookies. Back Warner to continue his stellar run and rack up the possessions as he leads the Swans to victory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.8avg disposals recent
Season best33
Disposals last 10avg 22.8 · hi 33 · lo 11
23312011193322272121

Chad Warner has a disposals high of 33 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.1avg goals recent
Season best4
Goals last 10avg 1.1 · hi 2 · lo 0
2210021021

Chad Warner has a goals high of 4 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chad Warner is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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