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The latest Bet Better model pick for Chad Warner is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 88 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 88%, implied 88%, edge +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:19PM UTC
AFL

Chad Warner

Sydney Swans

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+0.5% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
88 in 100
Predicted
24.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 88.2% · the book's price implies 87.7% · gap +0.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.2%—87.7%1.13+0.5%

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AI Analysis

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Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) Over 18.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Chad Warner, the young gun for the Sydney Swans, is set to shine on his home turf at the SCG against Port Adelaide Power. Warner's recent form is red hot, boasting an impressive average of 25.8 disposals in his last five home games. His ability to find the footy is unmatched, with a stellar 87.7% implied probability to eclipse the 18.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. Warner's consistency is key, hitting over 18.5 disposals in all of his last eight home games, showcasing his reliability in delivering on such bets. With an average of 24 disposals against Port Adelaide in their previous encounters, Warner is poised to continue his dominance and rack up the possessions. Betting on Warner to go over 18.5 disposals is a smart move backed by solid data and his undeniable form.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Chad Warner averaged 23.5 disposals, 1.4 goals and 4.2 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

23.5
Disposals
1.4
Goals
4.2
Marks
3.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Chad Warner recorded 21 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions21151
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide21241
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS27052
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows22131
9 Aug 24Collingwood33223
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide19038
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs11022
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions20161
13 Jul 24North Melbourne31262
7 Jul 24St Kilda23242
Quick answers:How many disposals does Chad Warner average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chad Warner is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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