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The latest Bet Better model pick for Chad Warner is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:05PM UTC
AFL

Chad Warner

Sydney Swans

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+0.5% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.2%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+0.5%
Predicted Value
24.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.2%—87.7%1.13+0.5%

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AI Analysis

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Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) Over 18.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Chad Warner, the young gun for the Sydney Swans, is set to shine on his home turf at the SCG against Port Adelaide Power. Warner's recent form is red hot, boasting an impressive average of 25.8 disposals in his last five home games. His ability to find the footy is unmatched, with a stellar 87.7% implied probability to eclipse the 18.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. Warner's consistency is key, hitting over 18.5 disposals in all of his last eight home games, showcasing his reliability in delivering on such bets. With an average of 24 disposals against Port Adelaide in their previous encounters, Warner is poised to continue his dominance and rack up the possessions. Betting on Warner to go over 18.5 disposals is a smart move backed by solid data and his undeniable form.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.8avg disposals recent
Season best33
Disposals last 10avg 22.8 · hi 33 · lo 11
23312011193322272121

Chad Warner has a disposals high of 33 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.1avg goals recent
Season best4
Goals last 10avg 1.1 · hi 2 · lo 0
2210021021

Chad Warner has a goals high of 4 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chad Warner is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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