Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bobby Hill is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 83 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 83%, implied 74%, edge +8.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 3:11AM UTC
AFL
Bobby Hill
Collingwood
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-286 (1.35) · $100→$135
+8.6% Edge
Collingwood Magpies
@
Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 7 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
83 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 82.7% · the book's price implies 74.1% · gap +8.6%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 82.7% | — | 74.1% | 1.21 | +8.6% |
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Bobby Hill (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-286)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bobby Hill is a strong bet to snag a goal in the upcoming Hawks vs. Magpies clash. With a solid average of 1.8 goals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he's historically netted 1.5 goals, Hill's chances look promising. His recent away game metrics paint a picture of consistency with 3.6 shots at goal and 51.7% goal accuracy. His involvement in scoring opportunities is evident with 4.8 score involvements per game. The model's prediction of 1.2 goals aligns well with his recent form, indicating a solid 8.6% edge. With these stats in mind, the over on Hill as an anytime goal scorer presents a logical choice for this matchup.
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Season averages (2024)
Bobby Hill averaged 11.1 disposals, 1.3 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Melbourne), Bobby Hill recorded 17 disposals and 2 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 23 Aug 24 | Melbourne | 17 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Brisbane Lions | 12 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Carlton | 16 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Richmond | 15 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 Jul 24 | Geelong Cats | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 5 Jul 24 | Essendon | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 14 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 Jun 24 | North Melbourne | 10 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Bobby Hill (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bobby Hill is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 7 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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