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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Miller is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +7.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:14PM UTC
AFL

Ben Miller

Richmond

+7.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -185 (1.54) · $100→$154
+7.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 19°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
72.2%
Implied Probability
64.9%
Model Edge
+7.3%
Predicted Value
15.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.2%—64.9%1.38+7.3%

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AI Analysis

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Ben Miller (Richmond) Over 12.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why Ben Miller is a prime pick for the 'Player Disposals Over' market against the Brisbane Lions. When the Tigers clash with the Lions at Ninja Stadium, all eyes will be on Miller to deliver the goods. Over his last five home games, he's been a possession machine, averaging a solid 15.8 disposals per match. With his recent form showing consistent numbers above the 12.5 line, Miller's knack for finding the footy, paired with his impressive disposal efficiency of 79.9%, makes him a reliable choice. Facing the Lions, against whom he's averaged 7.6 disposals in their last encounters, Miller is poised to step up and exceed expectations. Bet confidently on Miller to rack up the possessions and make an impact in this crucial matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Ben Miller averaged 12.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

12.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
5.7
Marks
1.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Ben Miller recorded 9 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS9032
18 Aug 24Hawthorn13080
11 Aug 24St Kilda10041
3 Aug 24North Melbourne13040
28 Jul 24Collingwood16071
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide11024
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8052
6 Jul 24Fremantle17043
30 Jun 24Carlton14061
15 Jun 24Hawthorn170121
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 12.5 Over -185 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 11.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 10.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ben Miller (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Miller is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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