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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 93%, implied 85%, edge +8.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:25PM UTC
AFL

Bayley Fritsch

Melbourne

+8.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -556 (1.18) · $100→$118
+8.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
1.7 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 93.1% · the book's price implies 84.7% · gap +8.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals93.1%84.7%1.07+8.4%

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AI Analysis

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Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Brisbane Lions, Bayley Fritsch is the man grabbing our attention. Fritsch has been a consistent goal-scorer, averaging an impressive 2.6 goals in his last five home games. His accuracy in front of the big sticks has been solid at 65.7%, making him a reliable scoring threat. With an average of 4 shots at goal and 8.2 score involvements in his recent home games, Fritsch is actively involved in creating opportunities and putting himself in dangerous positions to split the middle. Riding a hot streak with 5 goals in his last 5 games, including a 100% hit rate in his last 4 home games, Fritsch is poised to keep the momentum going and bag at least one goal in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Bayley Fritsch averaged 9.5 disposals, 1.8 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
1.8
Goals
3.4
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Bayley Fritsch has cleared 9.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.5100%
o10.590%
o11.580%
o12.560%
o13.550%
o14.540%
o15.510%
o16.50%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Bayley Fritsch is averaging 12.4 disposals per game over his last 5, including his recent form against Carlton.

12.4
Disp · Overall
13.4
Disp · vs Carlton
2.6
Goals · Overall
2.2
Goals · vs Carlton

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Bayley Fritsch recorded 9 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood9030
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS11171
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide11131
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs13260
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8240
21 Jul 24Fremantle10021
13 Jul 24Essendon9331
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles11351
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions11123
22 Jun 24North Melbourne6000
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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