Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
AFL

Bayley Fritsch

Melbourne

Value call

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $118 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
1.7 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 93.1% · the book's price implies 84.7% · gap +8.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 3:15 PM AEST
Bayley Fritsch
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -556 (1.18) · $100→$118
Value call
HIGHWins about 93 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$11.80 Odds-556
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 93%, the price says 85%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 23, 3:07PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals93.1%—84.7%1.07+8.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Bayley Fritsch's recent form, it's clear he's on fire in front of goal. With an average of 2.6 goals in his last 5 home games, he's proving to be a reliable scoring threat. Fritsch's sharpshooting accuracy of 65.7% and impressive involvement in his team's scoring plays make him a key player to watch. Facing the Brisbane Lions, against whom he has maintained a 2.6 goal average in recent matchups, Fritsch is poised to snag another goal at the MCG. His consistency is evident in his perfect 5-game goal streak, hitting the back of the net every time. With such a strong trend and the data backing him up, Fritsch is a solid bet to split the middle and score over 0.5 goals in this upcoming clash.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Bayley Fritsch averaged 9.5 disposals, 1.8 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
1.8
Goals
3.4
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Bayley Fritsch recorded 9 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood9030
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS11171
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide11131
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs13260
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8240
21 Jul 24Fremantle10021
13 Jul 24Essendon9331
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles11351
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions11123
22 Jun 24North Melbourne6000
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.