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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +5.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC
AFL

Bayley Fritsch

Melbourne

+5.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -714 (1.14)
+5.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
93.1%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+5.4%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals93.1%—87.7%1.07+5.4%

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AI Analysis

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Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to slotting goals, Bayley Fritsch is as reliable as they come, especially on home turf at the revered MCG. In his last five games, Fritsch has been a scoring machine, averaging a stellar 2.2 goals per match overall, with an impressive 2.6 goals per game against the upcoming opponent, the Brisbane Lions. His recent form at home has been nothing short of exceptional, with an average of 2.6 goals per game. Fritsch's knack for finding the big sticks, coupled with his consistent shot-taking ability (4 shots at goal per game), makes him a prime candidate to snag at least one goal in this upcoming clash. With a current hit streak of 4 at home and 5 overall, Fritsch is poised to split the middle and deliver for the Melbourne Demons once again. Betting on Fritsch to score over 0.5 goals seems like a safe bet given his recent goal-scoring prowess.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
9.9avg disposals recent
Season best17
Disposals last 10avg 9.9 · hi 13 · lo 6
6111191081311119

Bayley Fritsch has a disposals high of 17 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.3avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.3 · hi 3 · lo 0
0133022110

Bayley Fritsch has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
05 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Melbourne Demons Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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