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AFL

Bayley Fritsch

Melbourne

+7.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+7.7% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 15 Mar, 4:15AM
Model Probability
93.1%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+7.7%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

AI Analysis

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Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Bayley Fritsch snagging goals at the MCG, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Over his last five home games, he's been on fire, averaging a whopping 2.6 goals per game. With a sharpshooting goal accuracy of 79% and an impressive goal involvement rate of 7.2 per game, Fritsch has been a scoring machine. Against St Kilda, he's been even more lethal, averaging 1.3 goals in their recent encounters. Fritsch's recent form is red hot with a solid streak of hitting the back of the net. It's no surprise that the model predicts Fritsch to score 1.7 goals in this upcoming clash, indicating a high probability of him splitting the middle at least once. With Fritsch's form and history against St Kilda, taking the Over on his goal line seems like a smart play for this showdown at the G.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (50 picks) 90.0% (45/50)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
15 Mar 26 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
15 Mar 26 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
15 Mar 26 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
15 Mar 26 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Goals Pending
15 Mar 26 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Goals Pending
15 Mar 26 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Goals Pending

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