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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +8.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:29PM UTC
AFL

Bayley Fritsch

Melbourne

+8.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -556 (1.18) · $100→$118
+8.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.1%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+8.4%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals93.1%84.7%1.07+8.4%

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AI Analysis

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Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Brisbane Lions, Bayley Fritsch is the man grabbing our attention. Fritsch has been a consistent goal-scorer, averaging an impressive 2.6 goals in his last five home games. His accuracy in front of the big sticks has been solid at 65.7%, making him a reliable scoring threat. With an average of 4 shots at goal and 8.2 score involvements in his recent home games, Fritsch is actively involved in creating opportunities and putting himself in dangerous positions to split the middle. Riding a hot streak with 5 goals in his last 5 games, including a 100% hit rate in his last 4 home games, Fritsch is poised to keep the momentum going and bag at least one goal in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
9.9avg disposals recent
Season best17
Disposals last 10avg 9.9 · hi 13 · lo 6
6111191081311119

Bayley Fritsch has a disposals high of 17 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.3avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.3 · hi 3 · lo 0
0133022110

Bayley Fritsch has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bayley Fritsch is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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