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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Laurie is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 13, 10:27AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Laurie

Melbourne

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -323 (1.31)
+2.4% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
78.7%
Implied Probability
76.3%
Model Edge
+2.4%
Predicted Value
13.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.7%—76.3%1.27+2.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Laurie (Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Laurie is primed to shine in the upcoming clash against North Melbourne. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging a solid 12.8 disposals per game over the last five away matches. With his knack for finding the footy, coupled with a keen disposalefficiency of 67.8%, Laurie is a reliable playmaker in the midfield. His ability to cover ground is evident, racking up an average of 173.4 meters gained per game. Facing the Kangaroos, who have struggled to contain dynamic ball-winners, Laurie is poised to exploit their defensive vulnerabilities. Given his consistent performance and the favorable matchup, backing Laurie to surpass 9.5 disposals seems like a smart bet with a high probability of hitting.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bailey Laurie (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Laurie is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.