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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Laurie is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 64%, edge +8.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 22, 4:49PM UTC
AFL

Bailey Laurie

Melbourne

+8.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+8.3% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
13.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.4% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap +8.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%—64.1%1.38+8.3%

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Laurie (Melbourne) Over 10.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Laurie, the young gun from Melbourne, is poised to shine in front of the home crowd at the MCG against the Geelong Cats. With a stellar average of 13.6 disposals over his last five home games, Laurie has been a key playmaker for the Demons, consistently finding his teammates with precision (69.9% disposal efficiency). His ability to cover ground (averaging 247 metres gained) and win contested possessions (2.6 per game) showcases his versatility and impact on the field. Facing off against Geelong, a team he historically performs well against, Laurie is in a prime position to exceed the 10.5 disposals line. Given his recent form and the statistical edge in his favor, backing Laurie to surpass this mark is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his playmaking prowess.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Bailey Laurie averaged 9.0 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 6 games in 2024.

9.0
Disposals
0.3
Goals
1.8
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Bailey Laurie has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.570%
o11.570%
o13.540%
o14.530%
o16.520%
o17.520%
o18.510%
o20.50%
o21.50%
o23.50%
o24.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Bailey Laurie is averaging 13.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

13.8
Disp · Overall
1.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Bailey Laurie recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood7013
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS19043
10 Jun 24Collingwood14032
4 May 24Geelong Cats1000
24 Apr 24Richmond5220
7 Mar 24Sydney Swans8011
7 Sep 23Collingwood5002
27 Aug 23Sydney Swans9002
20 Aug 23Hawthorn14011
24 Apr 23Richmond4010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Laurie (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Laurie is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.3% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons on Friday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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