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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Laurie is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +8.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 2, 1:43PM UTC
AFL

Bailey Laurie

Melbourne

+8.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -179 (1.56)
+8.3% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.4%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+8.3%
Predicted Value
13.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%—64.1%1.38+8.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Laurie (Melbourne) Over 10.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Laurie, the young gun from Melbourne, is poised to shine in front of the home crowd at the MCG against the Geelong Cats. With a stellar average of 13.6 disposals over his last five home games, Laurie has been a key playmaker for the Demons, consistently finding his teammates with precision (69.9% disposal efficiency). His ability to cover ground (averaging 247 metres gained) and win contested possessions (2.6 per game) showcases his versatility and impact on the field. Facing off against Geelong, a team he historically performs well against, Laurie is in a prime position to exceed the 10.5 disposals line. Given his recent form and the statistical edge in his favor, backing Laurie to surpass this mark is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his playmaking prowess.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 11.5
11.6avg disposals L5
Away12.8vs Gold Coast SUNS12Season best19
O 9.570%
O 10.570%
O 11.570%
O 12.570%
O 13.560%
O 14.540%
Game log vs line (O 11.5)avg 8.6 · hi 19 · lo 1
4149585114197

Bailey Laurie has gone over 11.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 11.6 disposals, best 19).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 10.5 Over -185 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Laurie (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Laurie is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.3% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons on Friday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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