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AFL

Adam Saad

Carlton

+0.8% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -588 (1.17)
+0.8% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne
Sat 19 Jul, 9:35AM
Model Probability
86.2%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+0.8%
Predicted Value
20.0 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Adam Saad (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adam Saad is poised to shine in the upcoming game. With a model prediction of 20 disposals, comfortably exceeding his L5 average of 16.6, the Over 14.5 disposals bet is enticing. His recent form against Melbourne, averaging 21.2 disposals, further supports this wager. Saad's consistency is evident with a solid L5 home disposals average of 20. Additionally, his low turnover rate of 3 per game instills confidence in his ability to maintain possession. Playing at home boosts his performance, as indicated by his L5 stats. With an implied probability of 85.5%, this bet aligns with Saad's recent performances and the matchup dynamics, making it a promising choice for AFL betting enthusiasts.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (49 picks) 75.5% (37/49)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending

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