Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Adam Saad is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 86 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 86%, the price says 85%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:18PM UTC
AFL

Adam Saad

Carlton

Value call

Adam Saad (Carlton) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 14.5 that pays $117 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
Value call
Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
86 in 100
Predicted
20.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 86.2% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +0.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals86.2%—85.5%1.16+0.8%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Adam Saad (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adam Saad is poised to shine in this home game against Melbourne based on his recent form. With a model predicting him to reach 20 disposals and his L5 average at 20 disposals, Saad's consistent performance, especially with 25 disposals in his last five games against Melbourne, sets a strong foundation for this bet. His stats show prowess in kicks (L5 average of 13.2) and effective disposal (L5 average disposalefficiency of 78.1%). Saad's ability to gain meters (L5 average of 304.8) and find uncontested possessions (L5 average of 12) further solidify his potential to surpass the 14.5 disposal mark. Considering his track record and matchup, the Over 14.5 disposals bet on Saad presents a favorable opportunity.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Adam Saad averaged 18.3 disposals, 0.1 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

18.3
Disposals
0.1
Goals
3.9
Marks
2.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Adam Saad recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions16021
25 Aug 24St Kilda21012
11 Aug 24Hawthorn20040
3 Aug 24Collingwood21052
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide15014
21 Jul 24North Melbourne18114
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs24032
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS12032
30 Jun 24Richmond24054
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats18041
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Adam Saad (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adam Saad is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.