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Model picks & player props
Collingwood Magpies
VS
Carlton Blues

Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Thu 16 Apr 2026, 9:30AM
8
Game Picks
11
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Carlton Blues (Head to Head)
For Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues (AFL), model win probability 50.4%, fair odds 1.99, book price +140, model edge +8.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 16 Apr 2026, 9:30AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Head to Head
Carlton Blues
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Carlton BluesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Oliver Hollands Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Daicos Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Crisp Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brodie Kemp Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Harry McKay Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning bets for Carlton Blues playing Collingwood Magpies. Includes analysis on key players like Nic Newman. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies stats and odds.</p>

Nic Newman (Carlton) Over 21.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nic Newman, the poised playmaker for Carlton, is primed to shine in their clash against Collingwood at the MCG. Newman's recent form at home showcases his consistency, averaging a solid 24 disposals per game, exceeding the 21.5 line. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 87.4% disposal efficiency and impressive 556.2 metres gained over the last five home games. Facing Collingwood, Newman has historically elevated his game, with an average of 25.5 disposals in their past encounters. With a model prediction of 25.1 disposals and a 9.2% edge, backing Newman to surpass the 21.5 mark is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his reliability and impact in the midfield battle.

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies : Carlton Blues Win (+140)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Carlton Blues are looking primed for a big performance against the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. In their last five home games, the Blues have shown strength, averaging a margin of 6.6 points and scoring an average of 83 points per game. Their midfield dominance is evident, with an average of 37.6 total clearances and 135 contested possessions per game. On the defensive end, they have been solid, conceding just 76.4 points on average. On the flip side, the Magpies have struggled on the road, averaging a margin of -16.8 points and only managing 63.2 points per game in their last five away matches. Their clearance and contested possession numbers are notably lower than the Blues', which could be a crucial factor in this matchup. With the Blues' recent form and home advantage, backing them to snag the win seems like a smart play.

Nic Newman (Carlton) Over 20.5 Disposals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dependable ball winners, Nic Newman stands tall for the Carlton Blues. His recent form at home showcases his ability to impact the game consistently, averaging a solid 24 disposals per match. What sets him apart is his precision, boasting an impressive 81.5% disposal efficiency. Facing off against Collingwood, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 25.5 disposals in their last encounters, Newman is poised to dominate the midfield. With his knack for finding space and racking up kicks (averaging 17.8 kicks at home), expect him to surpass the 20.5 disposals line comfortably. Newman's stellar form and past success against the Magpies make him a prime candidate to snag this prop bet at the MCG.

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Ben Ainsworth, the dynamic forward for the Carlton Blues, is primed to light up the MCG against the Collingwood Magpies. Over his last five home games, Ainsworth has been a scoring machine, averaging 1.2 goals per game. His recent form against Collingwood shows consistency, with an average of 1 goal per matchup. With a solid track record of 1 goal per game overall, Ainsworth knows how to split the middle with precision. His scoring instincts are backed by an impressive 43.3% goal accuracy at home, ensuring that when he gets his chances, he makes them count. Ainsworth's involvement in the scoring plays, evident through his 5 score involvements per game, highlights his impact on the Blues' offensive drives. Expect Ainsworth to snag a goal and surpass the 0.5 mark comfortably in this highly anticipated clash.

Nic Newman (Carlton) Over 19.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nic Newman, the maestro of the backline, is set to shine at the MCG for the Blues against the Magpies. Over his last five home games, Newman has been a possession magnet, averaging a whopping 24 disposals per match. His precision is impeccable, boasting an 81.5% disposal efficiency. Against Collingwood, he's elevated his game even further, averaging 25.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With an innate ability to read the play and intercept, Newman isn't just a reliable ball carrier but a strategic asset in breaking down opposition attacks. Expect him to orchestrate Carlton's defensive maneuvers and surge past the 19.5 disposal line with ease, making the 'Over' on Newman a tantalizing bet for footy enthusiasts.

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies : Over 156.5 Total Points (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the Carlton Blues clash with the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG, expect a high-scoring affair. Carlton has been on a scoring spree, averaging 83 points in their last 5 home games. With an average of 25.2 shots at goal and 51 inside 50s per game, they consistently threaten the opposition's defense. Collingwood, while solid defensively, has shown vulnerability away, conceding 80 points on average. Their target goals of 9.2 per game may not be enough to contain Carlton's attacking prowess. Considering Carlton's recent form and Collingwood's defensive struggles on the road, betting on the Total Points to go Over 156.5 seems like a smart move for footy punters looking to snag a win on this high-stakes clash.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
16 Apr 26 Head to Head Carlton Blues ✗ MISS
16 Apr 26 Total Points Over 156.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 16 April 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 8 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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