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Model picks & player props
Collingwood Magpies
VS
Carlton Blues

Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 4:28PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Thu 16 Apr 2026, 9:30AM
8
Game markets graded
11
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Carlton Blues (Moneyline)
The model graded 19 markets for Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $240 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 50.4%, fair odds 1.99, book price +140, model edge +8.7%. Tip-off Thu 16 Apr 2026, 9:30AM at MCG.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Jack Crisp Under 22.5 · $100 returned $190

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Carlton Blues
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Carlton BluesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Oliver Hollands Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Daicos Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Crisp Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brodie Kemp Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Harry McKay Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues — what the model found

Our model graded 19 betting markets for Collingwood Magpies at Carlton Blues — 8 on the game itself and 11 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

8
Game markets graded
11
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 19 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for Carlton Blues playing Collingwood Magpies. Includes analysis on key players like Nic Newman. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies stats and odds.

Nic Newman (Carlton) Over 21.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nic Newman, the poised playmaker for Carlton, is primed to shine in their clash against Collingwood at the MCG. Newman's recent form at home showcases his consistency, averaging a solid 24 disposals per game, exceeding the 21.5 line. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 87.4% disposal efficiency and impressive 556.2 metres gained over the last five home games. Facing Collingwood, Newman has historically elevated his game, with an average of 25.5 disposals in their past encounters. With a model prediction of 25.1 disposals and a 9.2% edge, backing Newman to surpass the 21.5 mark is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his reliability and impact in the midfield battle.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
16 Apr 26 Moneyline Carlton Blues ✗ MISS
16 Apr 26 Total Points Over 156.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Magpies vs Blues, or as Blues vs Magpies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 16 April 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 8 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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