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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Daicos is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 83%, for a model edge of +4.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:14PM UTC
AFL

Josh Daicos

Collingwood

+4.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
+4.9% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 6:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.3%
Implied Probability
83.3%
Model Edge
+4.9%
Predicted Value
25.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.3%83.3%1.13+4.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Josh Daicos (Collingwood) Over 19.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to shine in the disposals department, Josh Daicos stands out like a beacon in the night sky. Daicos has been a consistent force on the field, averaging a solid 21.6 disposals over his last five away games. His ability to find space, coupled with his impressive disposal efficiency of 78.8%, makes him a reliable choice to hit that Over 19.5 mark. Moreover, in his recent clashes against West Coast, Daicos has elevated his game, averaging 25 disposals, showcasing his dominance against this opponent. With his current form and overall hit rate of 18/20, it's hard to overlook Daicos when it comes to racking up the possessions. So, if you're looking for a safe bet with a high probability of success, putting your money on Josh Daicos to surpass 19.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this upcoming clash at Optus Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Josh Daicos averaged 24.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

24.9
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.2
Marks
3.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Josh Daicos has cleared 16.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o16.590%
o17.590%
o19.580%
o21.580%
o23.560%
o24.560%
o26.550%
o28.550%
o30.520%
o31.520%
o33.50%
o35.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Josh Daicos is averaging 25.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

25.8
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Melbourne), Josh Daicos recorded 40 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Melbourne400101
17 Aug 24Brisbane Lions26090
9 Aug 24Sydney Swans26063
3 Aug 24Carlton20032
28 Jul 24Richmond32062
20 Jul 24Hawthorn22024
12 Jul 24Geelong Cats23066
5 Jul 24Essendon20030
29 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS20156
16 Jun 24North Melbourne20023
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 19.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 18.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 20.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Disposals Pending
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Disposals Pending
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Josh Daicos (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Daicos is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.9% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 9 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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