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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry McKay is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +6.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:03AM UTC
AFL

Harry McKay

Carlton

+6.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+6.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
91.5%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+6.1%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.5%—85.5%1.09+6.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Harry McKay of the Carlton Blues stands out like a beacon at the MCG. McKay has been on a tear lately, averaging a whopping 1.8 goals in his last five away games. Facing off against Collingwood, where he has averaged 2.5 goals in their previous encounters, McKay is primed to make his presence felt inside 50. His accuracy is at a solid 58.0%, and with an average of 3.6 shots at goal per game, he's not shy about taking his chances. McKay's recent form is red hot, hitting the scoreboard consistently with a current 13-game streak of at least one goal in away matches. With the model predicting him to hit 1.6 goals, there's a strong case to back McKay to kick over 0.5 goals in this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs CollingwoodO 0.5 -588+6.1% edge
70%hit L10 O 0.5
1.6avg goals L5
Away1.8vs Collingwood2Season best5
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)10 / 10 hit
3132532113

Harry McKay has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -588, model edge +6.1%.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 13.5
14avg disposals L5
Away16vs Collingwood11.4Season best19
O 11.580%
O 12.570%
O 13.570%
O 14.560%
O 15.550%
O 16.530%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 11.9 · hi 17 · lo 8
1789151114128169

Harry McKay has gone over 13.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14 disposals, best 19).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 12.5 Over -238 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 11.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
16 Apr 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Goals — — — Pending
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Harry McKay (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry McKay is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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