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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry McKay is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 67%, implied 85%, edge +1.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 1:02PM UTC
AFL

Harry McKay

Carlton

+1.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+1.9% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
87 in 100
Predicted
15.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 87.3% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +1.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.3%67.1%85.5%1.49+1.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 9.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to putting the ball in the hands of a key forward like Harry McKay, the Carlton Blues have been playing smart footy. McKay, known for his ability to not only snag a goal but also rack up disposals, has been on a solid run lately. With an average of 12 disposals per game in his last five away matches, McKay has shown his knack for getting involved in the play. Facing St Kilda, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 15 disposals in their recent matchups, McKay is poised to shine. His recent form, coupled with the Blues' game plan likely to involve him heavily, makes the Over 9.5 disposals bet an enticing proposition. McKay's versatility and presence around the ground make him a reliable choice to hit that mark and potentially even surpass it with his impact on the game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Harry McKay averaged 13.0 disposals, 2.3 goals and 6.8 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

13.0
Disposals
2.3
Goals
6.8
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Harry McKay has cleared 9.5 disposals in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.560%
o10.560%
o11.550%
o12.550%
o13.550%
o14.550%
o16.530%
o17.520%
o18.520%
o19.510%
o20.50%
o21.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Harry McKay is averaging 10.8 disposals per game over his last 5, including his recent form against Melbourne.

10.8
Disp · Overall
11.0
Disp · vs Melbourne
2.0
Goals · Overall
2.2
Goals · vs Melbourne

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Harry McKay recorded 9 disposals and 3 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions9351
11 Aug 24Hawthorn16182
3 Aug 24Collingwood8154
21 Jul 24North Melbourne12241
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs14391
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS11530
30 Jun 24Richmond15281
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats9373
9 Jun 24Essendon8133
30 May 24Port Adelaide17361
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Harry McKay (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry McKay is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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