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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry McKay is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 89%, for a model edge of +2.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 10:04AM UTC
AFL

Harry McKay

Carlton

+2.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12)
+2.3% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.5%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+2.3%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.5%—89.3%1.09+2.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a goal scorer in the AFL, you want someone who knows how to find the big sticks, and Harry McKay fits that bill perfectly. McKay has been on a tear lately, averaging 1.2 goals in his last five away games, and with a solid shot accuracy of 46%. Facing St Kilda, a team against whom he averages 4 goals in his last five encounters, McKay is poised to capitalize on his opportunities. His involvement in the Blues' forward line is evident with an average of 1.6 shots at goal and 1.2 marks inside 50 per game. With a current hit rate of 13 out of 14 in away games, McKay is in prime form to snag a goal and help you cash in on the over 0.5 goals prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

2 markets live
Disposalsvs St Kilda SaintsO 12.5 -156
70%hit L10 O 12.5
12avg disposals L5
Away12vs St Kilda14.6Season best19
O 10.580%
O 11.570%
O 12.570%
O 13.570%
O 14.560%
O 15.550%
Game log vs line (O 12.5)4 / 10 hit
1789151114128169

Harry McKay has gone over 12.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 12 disposals, best 19). Current line: Over 12.5 at -156.

Goalsvs St Kilda SaintsO 0.5 -769
70%hit L10 O 0.5
1.4avg goals L5
Away1.2vs St Kilda2.2Season best5
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)10 / 10 hit
3132532113

Harry McKay has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.4 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -769.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 12.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 11.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Harry McKay (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry McKay is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.3% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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