On Saturday 29 August 2026, Indiana Fever play Connecticut Sun in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 175.5 Total Points, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
The Connecticut Sun have struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games. They also give up a fair number of three-point shots, but they actually allow fewer rebounds than most teams. This matchup with the Indiana Fever looks like it could be tight, and our numbers suggest a combined score around 171.7. With both teams not scoring at their best, betting on fewer than 175.5 total points makes sense. Just remember, it could easily go the other way if both teams find their rhythm. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Connecticut Sun +24.5 on the Line (-286)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Indiana Fever have been struggling lately, and they might have a tough time against the Connecticut Sun. The Sun have only won 3 of their last 10 games, but they typically allow fewer rebounds than most teams, which could help them control the game. Since 2019, they've let opponents grab around 32 rebounds a game, while the Fever might struggle to take advantage of that. With the Sun at 24.5, it looks like a good chance for them to cover the spread, but it's worth noting that the Fever are at home and can always surprise. It was priced at -286 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Aaliyah Edwards Over 12.5 Points (+110)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
For Aaliyah Edwards to score over 12.5 points tonight, she needs to find her rhythm early against the Connecticut Sun. While the Sun have struggled recently, winning only 3 of their last 10 games, they also allow teams to shoot plenty of three-pointers and grab a decent number of rebounds. This means Edwards could get good opportunities to score, especially if her teammates create space for her. Edwards has been playing well, averaging more points than usual lately. The fact that the Sun give up around 32 rebounds a game could help her get extra chances for put-backs or assists leading to easy buckets. However, the close nature of this matchup means she could face some solid defense. Still, with her recent scoring form and the Sun's defensive issues, it looks promising for her to hit that over. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Aliyah Boston Under 8.5 Rebounds (+110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Aliyah Boston has been struggling with rebounds lately, averaging under 8.5 per game. The Connecticut Sun have allowed their opponents to grab around 32 rebounds against them on average, which is better than the league average. This matchup looks tight, as both teams are finding it hard to score, and that could lead to fewer rebound chances. The risk here is that Boston could have a big game if she gets more minutes or if the game turns into a high-scoring affair. Still, considering her recent form and the Sun's defensive stats, betting on her to get under 8.5 rebounds seems like a solid call. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 Assists (+110)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
For Kelsey Mitchell to get over 2.5 assists tonight, she needs to find her teammates open and get them the ball. The Connecticut Sun have had some struggles lately, winning just 3 of their last 10 games. They also allow a fair number of three-point shots, which means Mitchell might have good chances to set up her teammates for easy baskets. Mitchell has been doing well in creating plays, and with the Sun giving up a decent number of rebounds, there could be plenty of opportunities for her to dish out assists. The main risk is that the game could be close, and if the Fever end up playing a slower pace, that could limit Mitchell's chances. Still, the way things are shaping up, I like her chances to exceed that assists total tonight. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Indiana Fever v Connecticut Sun. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.