On Thursday 10 September 2026, Venezia play Fiorentina in Serie A. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Fiorentina +2.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -5000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Venezia prepares to host Fiorentina on Friday, the stats paint a rather bleak picture for the home side. They’ve struggled mightily lately, with a dismal 0-0-5 record in their last five outings, failing to score while conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game. Their xG numbers are non-existent, indicating a complete lack of attacking threat. On the flip side, Fiorentina may not be firing on all cylinders, but they’ve managed to keep things competitive, securing a win in their last match-up against Venezia. With a recent record of 1-1-3 and an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game, they appear poised to exploit Venezia’s defensive vulnerabilities. Given the home side’s struggles, backing Fiorentina on the handicap at -2.5 feels like a savvy play. With the odds heavily favoring the away side, it’s hard to see anything but a comprehensive victory for Fiorentina here.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina +1.5 Goal Handicap (-1111)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Venezia prepares to host Fiorentina, the weight of recent form heavily tips the scales in favor of the visitors. Venezia is struggling, with a dismal home record lately, going 0-0-5 in their last five outings. They’ve averaged just 0.8 goals while conceding a staggering 2.6, showcasing defensive frailties that Fiorentina is likely to exploit. Fiorentina, despite a mixed bag in their last five, still boasts a more potent attack, averaging 1.6 goals against teams that have had better defensive records than Venezia. Their ability to create chances, paired with Venezia’s low expected goals (xG) of 0, paints a clear picture. With Fiorentina finding their rhythm, backing them to cover a 1.5 handicap seems justified. Expect Fiorentina to leave the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo with a comfortable victory, potentially extending Venezia’s woes.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina +1.5 Goal Handicap (-1111)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Venezia prepares to host Fiorentina, the stats tell a compelling story. Venezia is currently struggling, with a disheartening record of 0-5 in their last five matches, averaging a mere 0.8 goals per game while conceding a staggering 2.6. Their xG numbers are equally bleak, indicating an inability to create significant scoring opportunities. In contrast, Fiorentina, despite their inconsistencies away, boasts a better overall form, including a record of 1-1-3 in their last five, and a more respectable scoring average. Even with an average of 0.8 goals, they’ve shown flashes of attacking potential, making them a potent threat against a beleaguered Venezia side. With Fiorentina’s superior offensive capabilities and Venezia’s defensive frailties, backing Fiorentina to cover the 1.5 handicap feels like a sound investment. Expect Fiorentina to capitalize on the home team's struggles and secure a comfortable win.
That is how our model reads Venezia v Fiorentina. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article