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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marin Pongracic is Over 0.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 35 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 35%, implied 32%, edge +9.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Aug 24, 11:32AM UTC
Soccer

Marin Pongracic

Borussia Dortmund

+9.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots Over 0.5 +210 (3.10) · $100→$310
+9.4% Edge
Fiorentina @ AS Roma
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio · Outdoor
Mon 24 Aug, 6:45PM
The recordWhen our formula calls soccer draw no bet calls: 27 of 57 right
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
42 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 41.6% · the book's price implies 32.3% · gap +9.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots41.6%35.1%32.3%2.85+9.4%

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AI Analysis

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Marin Pongracic (Croatia) Over 0.5 Shots (+210)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Fiorentina gears up to face AS Roma, eyes are on Marin Pongracic, who might just surprise us in the Player Total Shots market. While his recent averages may not jump off the page—0.2 overall shots and a disappointing 0 when playing away—there’s a compelling narrative unfolding here. The beauty of soccer betting lies in context. With Roma typically pushing forward and potentially leaving space at the back, Pongracic may find opportunities to exploit. His current hit streak may be nonexistent, but that could change in a match where Fiorentina will need to be proactive. The odds suggest there’s a meaty 9.4% edge on him registering over 0.5 shots, and given the unpredictability of football, this could be a golden chance for him to break free and take a shot or two. Sometimes it’s all about seizing the moment, and this could be Pongracic’s time to shine.

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Pick History & Track Record

Marin Pongracic — 2024 season

Marin Pongracic scored 0 goals with 0 assists in 5 Serie A appearances for Lecce in the 2024 season, from 1 shots (0 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.0.

0
Goals
0
Assists
0.0
xG
1
Shots
0
On target
2
Key passes
5
Apps
450
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Marin Pongracic (Borussia Dortmund) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marin Pongracic is Over 0.5 on Shots. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.4% on this pick. Their next game is Fiorentina vs AS Roma on Monday 24 August at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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