Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks (Grayson Allen Key Factor): Winning Game Angles

Khaman Maluach has been a reliable contributor for the Phoenix Suns, but when it comes to rebounding, expectations should be tempered. With a home average of just 5.2 rebounds over his last five games, he's consistently falling short of the 6.5 mark. Even more telling is his recent performance against the Denver Nuggets, where he managed only one rebound in their last five encounters-a concerning trend given the Nuggets' size and physicality. With a hit rate of 7 out of his last 8 games going under this line, it's clear that he's not just struggling; he's being contained effectively. Plus, the Suns have a strong home record, and with the pressure of the game, it's likely we'll see him focusing on other aspects of his game rather than crashing the boards. All signs point to taking the under on Maluach's rebounds in this matchup.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 15.5 Rebounds (-345)

As the Denver Nuggets head into Phoenix, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but betting on him to snag more than 15.5 rebounds might not be the smart play. Sure, he's a rebounding machine, but his recent numbers tell a different story. Over the last five games, Jokic has averaged just 11.8 rebounds, and when you look at his performance on the road, that number dips to about 15.2. Against the Suns, he's managed only 10 rebounds per game in their last five matchups away. With Phoenix's frontcourt tightening up defensively and Jokic's numbers trending downward, the Under feels like a strong play. With an expected stat value of just 12.58 and a solid hit rate of 4-for-4 in this range recently, it's a calculated risk worth taking. It's hard to bet against the Joker, but this matchup might just be one where less is more.

Rasheer Fleming (Phoenix Suns) Under 4.5 Rebounds (-189)

In the upcoming showdown between the Phoenix Suns and the Denver Nuggets, targeting Rasheer Fleming for under 4.5 rebounds feels like a smart play. Sure, he's been a solid contributor lately, but let's look deeper. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 3.6 boards, and at home, that number climbs only slightly to 3.8. When facing the Nuggets, he's managed a mere one rebound per game, and shockingly, he hasn't snagged a single board against them in Phoenix. With an expected stat value of only 2.81 and an impressive home hit rate of 17 out of 20 games going under this mark, it's clear he's not a rebounding machine in this matchup. The Nuggets are tough on the glass, and Fleming's numbers suggest he might struggle again. This makes the under on 4.5 rebounds not just a bet, but a compelling narrative of a player facing a challenging situation.