Study · NHL 2026-27 · First three weeks
NHL home ice
is running hot.
The betting market priced home teams to win about 52 games in 100 this season. They have won 57.
133 regular-season games, 7 to 27 October 2026 · Published 29 October 2026 · Free to quote under
CC BY 4.0
NHL 2026-27Home ice
62.2%
Home won since 15 Oct
A slow start,
then a run.
In the first week home teams won a little less than priced. Since 15 October they have won 51 of 82 games.
| Games played | Games | Home priced | Home won | Home wins |
|---|
| 7-14 October | 51 | 51.8% | 49.0% | 25 |
| 15-27 October | 82 | 52.5% | 62.2% | 51 |
| All | 133 | 52.2% | 57.1% | 76 |
Home favourites
beat their price.
The extra wins come from teams favoured at home. They were priced to win 58 games in 100 and won 66. Teams favoured on the
road landed exactly on their price.
| Who was favoured | Games | Favourite priced | Favourite won |
|---|
| The home team | 83 | 58.4% | 66.3% |
| The away team | 50 | 58.0% | 58.0% |
Favourites
by price.
| Favourite's price | Games | Priced to win | Won |
|---|
| 50-55% | 53 | 52.4% | 54.7% |
| 55-60% | 33 | 57.7% | 60.6% |
| 60-65% | 26 | 62.4% | 76.9% |
| 65-70% | 13 | 66.4% | 53.8% |
| 70% and up | 8 | 72.3% | 100% |
| All favourites | 133 | 58.3% | 63.2% |
The bands jump around because some hold only 8 to 26 games. In hockey a two-to-one favourite still loses about one night in
three, and 53 of these 133 games were settled by a single goal.
Six big
upsets.
Six teams priced at 65% or more have lost. Colorado lost three of them.
| Favourite | Priced to win | Lost to | Final |
|---|
| Colorado Avalanche (away) | 68% | Philadelphia Flyers | 2-3 |
| Colorado Avalanche (away) | 68% | Nashville Predators | 2-6 |
| Carolina Hurricanes (away) | 66% | Calgary Flames | 2-3 |
| Colorado Avalanche (home) | 66% | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3-6 |
| Washington Capitals (home) | 66% | Seattle Kraken | 3-5 |
| Minnesota Wild (away) | 65% | Calgary Flames | 1-2 |
Final shows the favourite's score first. Overtime and shootout results count.
Is it
real?
Too early to say. Over 133 games, home teams are 4.9 points over their price. If we resample the games 4,000 times, the gap
lands anywhere from 2.8 points under to 12.9 points over, 95 times in 100. That range still includes zero. A full NHL season
usually ends much closer to the price. We will update this page at the quarter mark.
Tonight's
NHL games.
Every game with the chance in plain words and the best price we found. Free.
See NHL picks
More on NHL at Bet Better: free NHL picks, NHL prop bets, NHL parlays, NHL odds, how to bet on NHL.
Player bets for tonight are on the NHL player props page.
How we
measured.
The method
We took the closing moneyline for every regular-season NHL game from opening night, 7 October, to 27 October 2026 that had
prices from at least three sportsbooks (about seven on average). Each book's two prices were turned into chances, then scaled
so the two teams add up to 100%, which removes the book's cut (4.5% on average). We averaged the books for each game and
matched it to the final score. Overtime and shootout results count.
On the Brier score (the average squared error of a chance; a coin flip scores 0.250), the closing prices scored 0.2285 so far,
better than the 0.2394 they expected of themselves, because more favourites won than the prices said.
Cite this study
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