When the Utah Jazz take the court against the Toronto Raptors, keep an eye on Ace Bailey's three-point shooting. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, his recent numbers tell a different story. Over his last 20 games, he's hit the mark just 65% of the time, and at home, that rate dips to 47%-making it clear that he struggles to find his rhythm in Salt Lake City.With the Raptors' defense tightening up, especially on the perimeter, Bailey is likely to find it tough to get those open looks. Against teams like Toronto, who excel at closing out on shooters, his chances of hitting more than 2.5 threes are slimmer than they might seem. Given the expected stat value of just 2.23 in this matchup, the under looks like a savvy play. With the odds in our favor, it's worth considering this angle as Bailey faces a challenging night from beyond the arc.
Sandro Mamukelashvili (Toronto Raptors) Under 1.5 Threes Made (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingAs the Toronto Raptors gear up to face the Utah Jazz, all eyes should be on Sandro Mamukelashvili and his three-point shooting. Despite his recent form, where he has hit the mark 4 out of 5 times, his away numbers tell a different story. On the road, he's averaging just 0.8 threes made per game, well below our target of 1.5. Against the Jazz, his history shows a mere 0.7 threes made in away matchups, suggesting that the Utah defense can effectively close out on him. With the Raptors' reliance on other scoring options, Mamukelashvili might find himself less involved in the perimeter game tonight. Given the context and the stats, targeting the under seems a savvy move, especially considering the odds lean slightly toward him struggling to find his rhythm in Salt Lake City.
Jamal Shead (Toronto Raptors) Under 1.5 Rebounds (+230)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingIn the upcoming clash between the Utah Jazz and the Toronto Raptors, targeting Jamal Shead for under 1.5 rebounds feels like the right move. While he's shown flashes of potential, his performance on the road has been telling: averaging just 1.2 boards in his last five away games. Given the Raptors' size and defensive prowess, Shead may find it even tougher to grab those rebounds. Historically, he's only managed 1.7 rebounds against Toronto, and those numbers dip when he's away from home. Moreover, with a recent hit rate of just 2 out of his last 3 games, it seems the odds are stacked against him. The implied probability of hitting the under sits at 30.3%, a clear indication that expectations should be tempered. With the Jazz focused on other scoring threats, Shead's minutes and opportunities to crash the boards might be limited, making this under bet a sound choice.
John Konchar (Utah Jazz) Under 4.5 Rebounds (-101)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishingAs the Utah Jazz face off against the Toronto Raptors, all eyes might be on the stars, but don't overlook John Konchar's rebounding prop. While he averages a solid 5.6 boards over his last five games, his home performances tell a different tale-dropping to just 4.8. The matchup against Toronto isn't particularly favorable either, as he's recorded only 3.4 rebounds at home against them recently.Given that Konchar has hit the under on this number in 9 of his last 10 home games and with an expected stat value of just 3.84, there's a compelling case here. The Raptors are a pesky team on the glass, and we can anticipate a tight game where boards may be harder to come by. With all these factors in play, targeting the under on Konchar's rebounds at 4.5 seems like a savvy move.
Jamal Shead (Toronto Raptors) Under 1.5 Threes Made (-141)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishingAs the Utah Jazz prepare to face the Toronto Raptors, Jamal Shead's role in this matchup suggests that we're wise to target the under on his three-pointers made. In his last five appearances, he's only averaged 0.2 threes overall, and even on the road, that number only ticks up to 0.4. Against the Raptors, he's managed a respectable 1.3 threes per game, but when playing away, he's hit just 3 in total across his last three games. With an expected stat value of 1.13, it's likely we won't see him exceed that 1.5 mark tonight. Combine that with a hit rate of 5-for-5 in his last five games, and you have a player whose recent form suggests a regression is on the horizon. Betting the under here feels like the right move, especially given the context of the game and his current rhythm.