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Model picks & player props
Phoenix Suns
VS
Detroit Pistons

Phoenix Suns vs Detroit Pistons Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
3
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Detroit Pistons -6.5 (Point Spread)
For Phoenix Suns vs Detroit Pistons (NBA), model win probability 83.6%, fair odds 1.20, book price -110, model edge +31.2%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Point Spread
Detroit Pistons
-6.5
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Detroit PistonsPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Phoenix Suns

  • CJ Huntley FDay-to-day
  • Rasheer Fleming FDay-to-day
  • Koa Peat FDay-to-day
  • Khaman Maluach CDay-to-day
  • Mark Williams CDay-to-day
  • Jordan Goodwin GDay-to-day

Detroit Pistons

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Availability updated Jul 19, 2:49AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Phoenix Suns vs Detroit Pistons: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsPhoenix Suns @ Detroit PistonsNo line posted

Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadDetroit Pistons spreadNo line posted

Detroit Pistons (season record) meet Phoenix Suns; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineDetroit Pistons to winNo line posted

Detroit Pistons (season record) host or visit Phoenix Suns; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Detroit Pistons totalNo line posted

Detroit Pistons averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Phoenix Suns; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Phoenix Suns totalNo line posted

Phoenix Suns averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Detroit Pistons; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Detroit Pistons vs Phoenix Suns. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.</p>

Detroit Pistons vs Phoenix Suns : Over 198.5 Total Points (-2500)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 198.5' for the Total Points in the Detroit Pistons vs Phoenix Suns game is backed by strong statistical evidence. Key indicators include the model prediction of 240.1, significantly higher than the outcome point of 198.5. Both teams' recent scoring trends further bolster this bet. In the last five games, the Pistons scored an average of 103.6 points while the Suns scored 116.6 points. Even more compelling is the teams' performance in their respective away and home settings, with the Pistons scoring an average of 106 points at home and the Suns scoring 118 points away. Additionally, both teams have been allowing high opponent scores, with the Pistons and Suns letting through 119.6 and 119.8 points respectively, indicating weak defenses. These factors collectively suggest a high probability of the total points exceeding 198.5.

Detroit Pistons vs Phoenix Suns : Detroit Pistons Over 104.5 Team Total Points (-588)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Detroit Pistons Over 104.5' is driven by the Pistons' recent scoring data. Despite their overall poor home record, Pistons have consistently posted scores above the outlined threshold, with an average of 106 points in their last five home games. This is higher than the 104.5 bet point. The model prediction also supports this bet, anticipating that the Pistons will score about 117.38 points, well above the over/under point set for the bet. Furthermore, the Phoenix Suns have allowed an average of 119.6 points in their recent games, suggesting that they may not be able to keep the Pistons below the 104.5 point mark. Therefore, the statistical trends indicate that the Pistons are likely to score more than 104.5 points, making this a reasonable bet.

Detroit Pistons vs Phoenix Suns : Detroit Pistons -6.5 (-110)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Detroit Pistons -6.5' might seem counterintuitive considering their recent performance. However, the model prediction of 5.79 points and model edge of 31.2% indicate a statistical advantage. Although the Pistons have a poor recent home record (0-5), the Suns also have a less than stellar away record (2-3). The Pistons score an average of 103.6 points per game, only a 13-point deficit compared to the Suns' 116.6. This gap narrows at home, where the Pistons average 106 points. Considering the Suns' away average score of 118 points, the point gap is reduced to 12, which is close to the predicted 5.79-point advantage. This, combined with the implied probability of 52.4%, suggests a reasonable chance that the Pistons could outperform the point spread.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Phoenix Suns vs Detroit Pistons in the NBA. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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