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The latest Bet Better model pick for Carmen Mlodzinski is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +16.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Carmen Mlodzinski

PIT

+16.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -233 (1.43)
+16.8% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Tue 2 Sep, 10:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
86.7%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+16.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts86.7%—69.9%1.15+16.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-233)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Carmen Mlodzinski's recent performance indicates a strong possibility of achieving over 2.5 strikeouts. Although his home averages are slightly lower, his overall averages show a promising trend. In the last five games, Mlodzinski averaged 3 strikeouts per game, surpassing the line set for this bet. Moreover, he averaged 3.3 innings pitched per game, providing ample opportunities for strikeouts. Despite a lower performance against the Dodgers in the past, his current form suggests an increased strikeout potential. Furthermore, Mlodzinski's current home hit streak stands at 2, showing a positive trend in his home performances. Therefore, considering his overall recent performances and the opportunity presented by his innings pitched, betting on Mlodzinski to achieve over 2.5 strikeouts is a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.530%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%
O 5.510%

Carmen Mlodzinski MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.540%
O 3.540%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%

Carmen Mlodzinski MLB hits allowedseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak5
O 0.570%
O 1.550%

Carmen Mlodzinski MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Carmen Mlodzinski is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.8% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday 2 September at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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