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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Falter is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 79%, for a model edge of +13.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Bailey Falter

PIT

+13.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -385 (1.26)
+13.1% Edge
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Wed 23 Jul, 4:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
92.4%
Implied Probability
79.4%
Model Edge
+13.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks92.4%—79.4%1.08+13.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Falter (PIT) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-385)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Bailey Falter's recent performance data supports a bet on him allowing over 0.5 walks in the upcoming game. Over his last five games, Falter's average walks allowed, both overall and at home, has consistently exceeded 0.5. His overall average sits at 1.4 walks, while his home average is even higher at 1.6 walks. Furthermore, his innings pitched (IP) and outs averages indicate he is typically on the mound for a substantial portion of the game, increasing the likelihood of him giving up at least one walk. Although his current hit streak is zero, this statistic is less relevant for the walks allowed market. Therefore, based on Falter's recent and home performance, a bet on over 0.5 walks allowed is statistically justified.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2065%
O 2.580%
O 3.540%
O 4.540%

Bailey Falter MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2080%
O 2.580%
O 3.580%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%

Bailey Falter MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2075%
O 0.580%
O 1.550%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%

Bailey Falter MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
3avg earned runs · L5
L2055%

Bailey Falter MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 3 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
15.6avg outs · L5
L2060%

Bailey Falter MLB outs: cleared over 14.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 15.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bailey Falter (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Falter is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.1% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday 23 July at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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