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Model picks & player props
Colorado Rockies
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 2:29AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Tue 11 Aug 2026, 1:40AM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 8.5 (Total Runs)
For Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB), model win probability 70.7%, fair odds 1.41, book price -118, model edge +16.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Tue 11 Aug 2026, 1:40AM at Chase Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 498 of 903 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 8
Under 6
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Colorado Rockies

  • Jaden Hill RPOut
  • Jose Quintana SPOut
  • Jeff Criswell RPOut
  • Chase Dollander SPOut
  • Welinton Herrera RPOut
  • McCade Brown SPOut
  • RJ Petit RPOut
  • Pierson Ohl RPOut
  • Kris Bryant DHOut

Probable pitcher

Michael Lorenzen SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Justin Martinez RPOut
  • Jordan Lawlar LFOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Merrill Kelly SPDay-to-day
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut
  • Drey Jameson RPOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Eduardo Rodriguez SP
Availability updated Aug 9, 8:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesOver 11 +228
50%over %
11.0proj. runs
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L55-0

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs vs Colorado Rockies is live and our model makes it 50% (LEAN); proj. runs 11.0.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run line-3.5 +300
+2.6proj. margin
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L55-0Free board8-6

Arizona Diamondbacks spread vs Colorado Rockies is live and our model makes it 43% (LONG-SHOT); proj. margin +2.6.

MoneylineArizona Diamondbacks to win-164
79%model win %
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L55-0Free board7-5

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline vs Colorado Rockies is live and our model makes it 79% (HIGH); L5 record 3-2.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
2.4runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L55-0

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

<p>Our Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.</p>

On August 10, 2026 our model has run Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-278)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Colorado Rockies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-278). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 (-118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Colorado Rockies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 (-118). That is a spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.47 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 (-120)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Colorado Rockies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 (-120). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.33 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 3.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-222)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Colorado Rockies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 3.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-222). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -222 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-417)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Colorado Rockies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-417). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -417 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 6 Total Runs (-370)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arizona Diamondbacks play Colorado Rockies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Over 6 Total Runs (-370). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -370 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rockies vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Rockies. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 11 August 2026 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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