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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:13AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Wed 12 Aug 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
87.2%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
San Diego Padres -2 Spread +267

The model graded 70 markets for Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $367 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 87.2% across 39 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 12 Aug 2026, 8:10PM at Petco Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win52.1%
The price says25.7%
Best price+267
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread San Diego Padres -2 Lean52% chance +267
Spread Lean57% chance
Moneyline Lean59% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean55% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
Spread Long-shot14% chance
Spread Long-shot10% chance
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 94%
Batter - Singles × 11 props Highup to 88%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 74%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 11 props Highup to 92%
Pitcher - Outs × 1 prop Highup to 96%
Batter - Walks × 5 props Highup to 93%
Batter - Runs Scored × 6 props Highup to 98%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
San Diego Padres -2 · $100 returned $407

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
San Diego Padres
-6.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Abner Uribe RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP

San Diego Padres

  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Nick Pivetta SPOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Robbie Ray SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 6:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jackson Chourio Batter - Total Bases
Jackson Chourio Batter - Singles
Kyle Harrison Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Luis Rengifo Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jackson Chourio Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Milwaukee Brewers L51-4Free board16-9

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Milwaukee Brewers L51-4

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
0.7runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Milwaukee Brewers L51-4

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 1 of their last 5 games; Milwaukee Brewers have won 4 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–7TBAway
L4–9TBAway
L0–1PITHome
W3–0PITHome
L2–3PITHome
Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3TEXHome
W6–1TEXHome
W8–2NYMAway
W8–1NYMAway
L2–3NYMAway

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 8 times recently: San Diego Padres won 5, Milwaukee Brewers won 3.

DateSan Diego PadresMilwaukee BrewersWinner
Aug 12112San Diego Padres
Aug 1243San Diego Padres
Aug 1132San Diego Padres
May 1417Milwaukee Brewers
May 1331San Diego Padres
May 1246Milwaukee Brewers
Mar 2116Milwaukee Brewers
Feb 2375San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Nick Pivetta SPOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Abner Uribe RPOUT
JoJo Romero RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Joel Kuhnel RPOUT
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Quinn Priester SPOUT
Angel Zerpa RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Our Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres prediction for August 13, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 13, 2026 our model has run Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers: San Diego Padres +3.5 (-435), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
39
Total Picks
87.2%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings San Diego Padres 1.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread San Diego Padres +2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings San Diego Padres 2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 9.5 ✗ MISS
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings San Diego Padres 3.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Brewers vs Padres, or as Padres vs Brewers. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 12 August 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 87.2% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 33 meetings on record
San Diego Padres 17–16 across the last 33 meetings · these games average 9.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Aug 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres11–2San Diego Padres
11 Aug 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres3–2San Diego Padres
10 Aug 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres3–2San Diego Padres
14 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers7–1Milwaukee Brewers
13 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers1–3San Diego Padres
12 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers6–4Milwaukee Brewers
21 Mar 2026San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers6–1Milwaukee Brewers
23 Feb 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres7–5San Diego Padres
24 Sep 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres1–3Milwaukee Brewers
23 Sep 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres7–0San Diego Padres

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 33 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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