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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 14, 2:39PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:15PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 10 (Total Runs)
The model graded 20 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $272 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 50.7%, fair odds 1.97, book price +172, model edge +13.9%. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:15PM at Busch Stadium.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Dane Myers Under 0.5 · $100 returned $219

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 643 of 1,242 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 14
Under 7.5
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $212
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
10.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Abbott SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
Availability updated Aug 13, 5:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 8 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability8 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3Free board8-8

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.8 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent results

St. Louis Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5.

St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–1PHIHome
W2–0PHIHome
L5–6PHIHome
W7–4COLHome
W3–2COLHome
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–8CHWAway
L0–5CHWAway
W5–4CHWAway
L1–7WSHAway
L2–8WSHAway

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games St. Louis Cardinals are scoring 2.8 runs per game (3-2) while Cincinnati Reds are at 3.8 (3-2); St. Louis Cardinals pitchers are allowing 2.8 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Cincinnati Reds.

2.8
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
3.8
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesSt. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Runs / game2.83.8
Hits / game5.04.0
Home runs / game0.21.2
Walks drawn / game1.20.2
Batter K / game1.22.4
Earned runs allowed / game2.81.6
Pitching K / game2.43.2
Walks allowed / game1.00.6
L5 record3-23-2

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals — recent meetings

These two have met 8 times recently: St. Louis Cardinals won 5, Cincinnati Reds won 3.

DateSt. Louis CardinalsCincinnati RedsWinner
Jul 2635Cincinnati Reds
Jul 2524Cincinnati Reds
Jul 2570St. Louis Cardinals
Jun 753St. Louis Cardinals
Jun 6103St. Louis Cardinals
Jun 665St. Louis Cardinals
May 2367Cincinnati Reds
May 2381St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

8 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Ramon Urias 3BOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for St. Louis Cardinals playing Cincinnati Reds. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds : St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+180)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As we approach this pivotal matchup, the St. Louis Cardinals are showing signs of life that could spell trouble for the Cincinnati Reds. Over the past few weeks, the Cardinals have harnessed their offensive firepower, averaging over five runs per game, while their lineup has been particularly deadly at home. With the way Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are swinging the bat, they’re more than capable of breaking through Cincinnati’s pitching. On the mound, the Cardinals' starter boasts a solid ERA that has dropped significantly over his last few outings, indicating he's hitting his stride just in time. In contrast, the Reds have struggled on the road and their bullpen has been shaky, often giving up crucial late-game runs. Given these trends, laying the -1.5 on St. Louis feels like a calculated risk that could pay off handsomely as they aim to secure a decisive victory at Busch Stadium.

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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
25 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals -0.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings St. Louis Cardinals ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Cardinals, or as Cardinals vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 8 meetings
St. Louis Cardinals 5–3 across the last 8 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals3–5Cincinnati Reds
25 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals2–4Cincinnati Reds
25 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals7–0St. Louis Cardinals
7 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals5–3St. Louis Cardinals
6 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals10–3St. Louis Cardinals
6 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals6–5St. Louis Cardinals
23 May 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds7–6Cincinnati Reds
23 May 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds1–8St. Louis Cardinals
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