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Model picks & player props
Sydney Roosters
VS
Dolphins

Sydney Roosters vs Dolphins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 20, 7:12AM UTC

Our model graded 24 markets for Sydney Roosters vs Dolphins and backs Dolphins -18.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $520.

NRL
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 9:50AM
20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Dolphins -18.5 Alt Spread +420

The model graded 24 markets for Sydney Roosters vs Dolphins (NRL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $520 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 25 Sep 2026, 9:50AM.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win20.1%
The price says18.0%
Best price+420
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alt Spread Dolphins -18.5 Long-shot20% chance +420
Alt Spread Members only Long-shot11% chance Members
1st Half Moneyline Members only Lean44% chance Members
Try Scorer First × 1 prop Long-shotup to 1% Members
Anytime Try × 1 prop Long-shotup to 9% Members
Tries Over × 2 props Long-shotup to 2% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
How they've been scoring this season
Sydney RoostersDolphins
Won-lost11-713-5
Points scored per game21.225.2
Points allowed per game21.121.8
On the road / at home4-4 away4-3 at home
Last 5 gamesWLLLLWWWWW
Their games average 44.7 total points this season.
From the 18 Sydney Roosters and 18 Dolphins games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 18 bookmakers compared
Winner
Roosters2.27+127Marathonbet
Draw25.00+2400Marathonbet
Dolphins1.67-149Betfred
Total points
Over43.51.90-111TAB
Under43.51.90-111TAB

Sydney Roosters vs Dolphins odds by bookmaker

18 books · best price in green
BookRoosters winDolphins winDolphins -2.5Over 43.5Under 43.5
TAB2.25+1251.65-1541.90-1111.90-1111.90-111
Betr2.25+1251.65-154
BetRight2.24+1241.65-1541.90-111
Casumo2.23+1231.66-1521.89-112
Grosvenor2.18+1181.65-1541.88-114
Leovegas Se2.23+1231.66-1521.89-112
PlayUp2.20+1201.67-149
Sportsbet2.23+1231.66-1521.90-111
TABtouch2.23+1231.66-1521.89-112
Unibet2.20+1201.66-1521.90-111
Unibet Nl2.23+1231.66-1521.89-112
Unibet Se2.23+1231.66-1521.89-112
Betfred2.25+1251.67-149
Marathonbet2.27+1271.65-154

Since the market opened: Dolphins to win opened 1.64, best now 1.67; the over 43.5 opened 1.90, best now 1.90 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NRL market — 88 of 173 right (nrl totals overs)
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alt Spread
Dolphins
-27.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
DolphinsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DolphinsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney RoostersAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DolphinsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney Roosters1st Half MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DolphinsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DolphinsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DolphinsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DolphinsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DolphinsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Draw on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Draw
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Sydney Roosters

Player availability is not tracked for NRL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Dolphins

Player availability is not tracked for NRL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Sydney Roosters vs Dolphins: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and player availability isn't tracked for NRL on this page.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 20 Sep

Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Picks (Thomas Flegler Key Factor): Odds Analysis & Top Props

On Friday 25 September 2026, Dolphins play Sydney Roosters in the NRL. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Sydney Roosters to Win the First Half, priced at +130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Sydney Roosters to Win the First Half (+130)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Friday 25 September 2026, Dolphins host Sydney Roosters in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Sydney Roosters First Half Match Winner. This one only needs Sydney Roosters to be in front at half time. It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Dolphins -14.5 on the Line (+270)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Friday 25 September 2026, Dolphins host Sydney Roosters in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Dolphins -14.5 Line. On this line Dolphins give up 14.5 points before the game starts, so they have to win by more than 14.5. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Thomas Flegler to Score a Try (+1100)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Friday 25 September 2026, Dolphins host Sydney Roosters in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Thomas Flegler Anytime Try Scorer. This wins if Thomas Flegler scores a try at any point in the game. It was priced at +1100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $120 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +1100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $120 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Angus Crichton Over 1.5 Tries (+6000)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Friday 25 September 2026, Dolphins host Sydney Roosters in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Angus Crichton Over 1.5 Tries. This wins if Angus Crichton scores at least 2 tries. It was priced at +6000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $610 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +6000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $610 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Billy Smith Over 2.5 Tries (+6000)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Friday 25 September 2026, Dolphins host Sydney Roosters in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Billy Smith Over 2.5 Tries. This wins if Billy Smith scores at least 3 tries. It was priced at +6000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $610 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +6000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $610 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Dolphins v Sydney Roosters. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ray Stone Try Scorer First
Thomas Flegler Anytime Try
Angus Crichton Tries Over
Billy Smith Tries Over

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Sydney Roosters @ Dolphins — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for Sydney Roosters at Dolphins — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 23 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Sydney Roosters vs Dolphins — recent results

Dolphins have won 5 of their last 5 games; Sydney Roosters have won 0 of their last 0.

Dolphins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W26–16NEWAway
W24–20GOLAway
W26–12SYDAway
W34–16PARHome
W22–0MANAway

Sydney Roosters @ Dolphins — where the money went

Since betting opened on Sydney Roosters at Dolphins, the market has moved away from Draw across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Draw▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Dolphins▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Sydney Roosters @ Dolphins — model preview

Dolphins v Sydney Roosters, 25 September 2026. Top of the list: Sydney Roosters to Win the First Half. Our model likes 5 bets in this game.

On Friday 25 September 2026, Dolphins play Sydney Roosters in the NRL. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Sydney Roosters to Win the First Half, priced at +130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Sydney Roosters to Win the First Half (+130)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Friday 25 September 2026, Dolphins host Sydney Roosters in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Sydney Roosters First Half Match Winner. This one only needs Sydney Roosters to be in front at half time. It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Sydney Roosters vs Dolphins in the NRL. The next scheduled game is Friday 25 September 2026. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NRL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Dolphins 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
29 Aug 2026Dolphins @ Roosters12–26Dolphins
Today's selected board

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