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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Cincinnati Reds

New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 8:52PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Tue 24 Jun 2025, 11:10PM
0
Game Picks
13
Player Props
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Max Fried SPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BDay-to-day
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Matt McLain 2BOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Probable pitcher

Chase Burns SP
Availability updated Jul 22, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Elly De La Cruz CIN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Matt McLain CIN Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Max Fried NYY Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Max Fried NYY Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L52-3Win rec5-9

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L52-3ATS4-10

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
4.0implied team total
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like TJ Friedl. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees stats and odds.</p>

TJ Friedl (CIN) Over 0.5 Hits (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

TJ Friedl has a strong recent performance, with an average of 2 hits in his last 5 overall games and 1.2 hits in his last 5 home games. This shows a consistent ability to get on base. Furthermore, his plate appearances averages of 5.4 overall and 4.4 at home suggest he will have ample opportunities to hit. The most compelling statistic is his current hit streaks. Friedl has hit successfully in his last 6 overall games and his last 5 home games. This shows a sustained period of good form, increasing the likelihood that he will hit successfully in the upcoming game. Therefore, the bet on TJ Friedl for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data.

Matt McLain (CIN) Over 0.5 Hits (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Matt McLain for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. McLain's last five games show an average of 0.8 hits overall, which is 60% more than the line of 0.5. Additionally, his average hits against the Yankees is 0.7, higher than the line. Although his home hit average is slightly lower at 0.4, his plate appearances at home average 4.3, which provides ample opportunities for him to get hits. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his past performance suggests he has a strong likelihood of getting at least one hit in the upcoming game. His overall and opponent-specific averages support this bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 June 2025 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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