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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 26, 4:08PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
8
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Boston Red Sox Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings -120

The model graded 28 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $183 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 19 Jul 2026, 5:35PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win89.1%
The price says54.6%
Best price-120
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox High89% chance -120
Moneyline High80% chance
Spread Long-shot32% chance
Spread Long-shot27% chance
Spread Long-shot38% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
Spread Long-shot18% chance
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Lean59% chance
Spread Lean44% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 74%
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 83%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 87%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Boston Red Sox -2.5 · $100 returned $360

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 933 of 1,879 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 26
Under 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $440
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Boston Red Sox
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Boston Red SoxMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Casey Legumina SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Adley Rutschman CDay-to-day
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Payton Tolle SP
Availability updated Aug 26, 11:53AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Sonny Gray CIN Pitcher - Strikeouts
Chandler Simpson TBR Batter - Total Bases
Anthony Seigler Batter - Total Bases
Willson Contreras STL Batter - Total Bases
Junior Caminero Batter - Hits

+ 8 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Tampa Bay Rays L55-0Free board8-5

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Tampa Bay Rays L55-0

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Tampa Bay Rays L55-0

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 28 betting markets for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox — 20 on the game itself and 8 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
8
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 28 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 27 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 5 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–3MIAAway
W4–2MIAAway
W5–4SFHome
W3–2SFHome
W6–4SFHome
Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4DETAway
W4–1DETAway
W3–1BALAway
L2–3BALAway
L3–5BALAway

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 5, Tampa Bay Rays won 5.

DateBoston Red SoxTampa Bay RaysWinner
Jul 1961Boston Red Sox
Jul 1876Boston Red Sox
Jul 1753Boston Red Sox
Jul 17100Boston Red Sox
Jun 1057Tampa Bay Rays
Jun 934Tampa Bay Rays
Jun 813Tampa Bay Rays
May 1014Tampa Bay Rays
May 820Boston Red Sox
May 748Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor Story SSOUT
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Boston Red Sox playing Tampa Bay Rays. Includes analysis on key players like Caleb Durbin. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays stats and odds.

Caleb Durbin (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox prepare to face off against the Rays, all eyes will be on Caleb Durbin, who’s been a mixed bag lately at the plate. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent performance against left-handed pitching has been less than stellar, hitting just .220 over the last month. The Rays’ ace on the mound, a crafty lefty, excels at neutralizing left-handed batters, further complicating Durbin’s chances. Moreover, the Red Sox lineup has struggled to find consistent rhythm against quality pitching, leading to sporadic offensive output. With Boston's recent record against lefties not in their favor—averaging only a handful of runs—you can see why going under 1.5 total bases for Durbin makes sense. Combine his struggles with the tough matchup, and it’s tough to envision him clearing that mark today. Expect a quiet afternoon for Durbin at the plate.

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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
19 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -2.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Moneyline Boston Red Sox ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox +1.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox +2.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 12.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rays vs Sox, or as Sox vs Rays. The most recent game between them was Sunday 19 July 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 8 meetings
Even at 4–4 across the last 8 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox6–1Boston Red Sox
18 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox7–6Boston Red Sox
17 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox5–3Boston Red Sox
17 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox10–0Boston Red Sox
10 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays7–5Tampa Bay Rays
9 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays4–3Tampa Bay Rays
8 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays3–1Tampa Bay Rays
10 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox1–4Tampa Bay Rays
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