On Saturday 3 October 2026, Manchester United play Tottenham Hotspur in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 4.5 Total Goals, priced at -385 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-385)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Manchester United welcomes Tottenham Hotspur, the recent form of both teams leans heavily towards a low-scoring affair. United's home matches have seen a modest average of 2.6 goals, but their attacking output has dwindled, highlighted by their xG numbers reflecting a lack of clear chances. With Spurs struggling offensively, averaging just 0.4 goals in their last five outings, their inability to convert opportunities is alarming. Defensively, both teams have shown resilience, particularly at home for United, who have kept their last few encounters tight. Historical matchups have also trended under, with their last five meetings yielding a similar pattern. Given the current difficulties in front of goal for both sides, betting on under 4.5 total goals feels like a savvy move this Saturday.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: Tottenham Hotspur +0.75 Goal Handicap (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Manchester United hosts Tottenham Hotspur, the narrative suggests that Spurs might just have the edge. United's home form has been shaky, managing only one win in their last five overall, while Spurs have a slightly better away record despite recent struggles, with two draw results in their last five. Interestingly, when we look at the scoring metrics, United's home average is 2.6 goals per game, yet their defense is leaking 1.6, showcasing vulnerability. On the flip side, Tottenham, while averaging just 0.8 goals on the road lately, has shown resilience against the Red Devils historically, going 2-2-1 in their last five encounters. With Spurs needing a positive result, this handicap of 0.75 offers a safety net. If they can pull off a draw or even a narrow defeat, our bet remains intact. Given the teams’ current forms, backing Tottenham here feels like a savvy move.

That is how our model reads Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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